Rivian received differing assessments from two large brokerages on Friday, with Deutsche Bank adopting a more bullish stance and UBS taking a more guarded view.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu elevated his recommendation on the electric-vehicle maker to Buy from Hold and increased the firms price target to $23 from $16. Yu told clients he sees "early signs that the company's prospects are inflecting," pointing to what he described as a de-risked 2026 outlook. He highlighted reasonable volume expectations and ongoing improvements in vehicle costs, and noted that Rivian's R2 model remains on track for a second-quarter launch.
Yu argued that competitive dynamics have shifted in ways that could favor Rivian, saying several rivals are retreating or slowing their EV transitions while Tesla has removed higher-end models from its lineup. Those developments, he said, support Rivian's positioning in the market.
Beyond near-term production and cost trends, Deutsche Bank also factored in Rivian's longer-term strategy to develop a vertically integrated autonomy stack. The bank suggested this ambition could help create a moat around the business, particularly if Volkswagen deepens its involvement. Deutsche Bank highlighted two elements of financial support that it believes reduce mid-term capital risk: a supplemental $2 billion commitment from Volkswagen this year and backing from a Department of Energy loan. The firm also cited stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results and characterized the stock's risk-reward as attractive.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak presented a more tempered appraisal, moving Rivian to Neutral from Sell and setting a $16 price target. Spak emphasized that the investment thesis depends on Rivian becoming a larger and ultimately profitable company. He acknowledged that the company's 2026 guidance is better than UBS had feared, but said that guidance still embeds both upside and downside outcomes.
UBS noted several constraints on near-term upside, including ongoing cash burn, the execution challenges associated with ramping the R2 program, and continued volatility driven by sentiment. For those reasons, the firm said it expects limited positive revisions in the near term and views the current price as better balancing risk and reward.
The divergent broker views highlight the tension between improving operational signals and persistent execution and capital concerns. Investors will continue to weigh the extent to which cost declines, volume growth and external support can materially reduce risk before the company reaches sustained profitability.