Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte estimates U.S. equities may attract roughly $11 billion in weekly inflows as individual tax refunds are paid out through mid-April. Thatte noted in his research that the interval from mid-February to mid-April typically accounts for approximately one-third of annual inflows into U.S. stocks.
Bank economists in the same group are forecasting an additional $50 billion to $100 billion in individual tax refunds this year. The team flagged the potential for those funds to increase consumer spending, which could have knock-on effects for the broader economy and market demand.
Thatte warned, however, that the boost to equity flows may not be as pronounced as in 2021, when fiscal stimulus payments were substantially larger. He emphasized that whether refunds translate into higher stock prices will depend on how investors view growth prospects and the balance of market risk. The strategist also said that "risk appetite so far this year has been fragile," citing the AI-led selloff in software names as an example of that hesitation.
In a related analysis, Deutsche Bank reported that global corporate earnings rose by about 15% in the fourth quarter, reaching their highest level in roughly three-and-a-half years. The bank attributed the gains primarily to stronger results in emerging markets and the United States.
Following that performance, Deutsche Bank raised its earnings estimates for the first quarter and for the full year 2026. The bank highlighted South Korea and Taiwan as markets that saw material upward revisions, tying those upgrades to demand driven by artificial intelligence.
Taken together, the bank's note lays out a scenario where a meaningful stream of tax-related cash flows and firmer earnings expectations could support markets, but also cautions that subdued risk appetite and the scale of fiscal support relative to earlier stimulus years limit the certainty of those outcomes.