Deutsche Bank has moved Airbnb to a Buy rating and assigned a $154 price target for the stock, a valuation that represents about 33% upside from the most recent closing price. The analyst who initiated the change pointed to sustained travel demand and a recent acceleration in product-led improvements following the company's quarterly results.
According to the analyst, Airbnb reported nights growth of 10% in the quarter, which exceeded Street expectations by 3.6 percentage points and was described as the fastest growth of 2025 despite a difficult year-over-year comparison. The company also provided first-quarter revenue guidance above consensus, a development that pushed shares higher in premarket trading.
Two specific product initiatives were singled out as meaningful contributors to near-term performance. Reserve Now Pay Later, referred to as RNPL, materially supported North America nights, while a move to a more streamlined fee structure for hosts reduced pricing friction. Combined, RNPL and the fee simplification contributed over 200 basis points of quarterly growth, and the analyst expects both to remain tailwinds into 2026.
While the bank described the companys first-quarter outlook as conservative, it noted that underlying quarter-to-date trends have held up and that year-over-year comparisons will ease. The analyst highlighted product momentum delivered in the second half of 2025 and identified potential ’meaningful 1H26 FX benefits, together with the companys guidance for at least double-digit revenue growth in 2026.
For the upcoming quarter, Airbnb guided revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion, above analysts average estimate of $2.53 billion. Management does not expect adjusted core profit margin expansion this year, electing instead to reinvest in marketing, product and technology.
The bank also emphasized a fairly full product pipeline extending into 2026 and 2027. Key drivers the analyst expects to support continued growth include scaling benefits from the new host fee framework, expansion of the hotel business beyond its described nascent stage, and AI-native search features designed to lift conversion. Longer-term optionality was noted in Sponsored Advertising and in development of Experiences and Services.
In the fourth quarter, Airbnb reported earnings per share of $0.56, down from $0.73 a year earlier. Quarterly revenue was $2.78 billion, topping expectations of $2.71 billion.
Bottom line - the upgrade reflects a view that product changes and payment innovations are translating into measurable demand gains, while the firm continues to prioritize reinvestment over margin expansion in the near term.