Overview
Christian Sewing, chief executive of Deutsche Bank AG, said trading revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter, attributing the reduction principally to unfavorable currency swings for the German lender. Sewing made the comments at a conference organized by Morgan Stanley.
Revenue outlook within the investment bank
Sewing indicated that total revenue at the bank's investment-banking unit is anticipated to hold roughly flat compared with the same period a year earlier. He said that rising income from origination and advisory activities should offset the anticipated decline in fixed-income revenue.
Foreign-exchange adjusted view
The CEO added that when results are adjusted for foreign-exchange movements, the bank's trading business is showing growth. At the same time, he noted that Deutsche Bank had reported very strong first-quarter earnings in 2025. Sewing cautioned that the actual figure could still change because the quarter has not yet ended.
Earlier quarterly signals
In January, the bank reported a strong start to the quarter. Finance chief James von Moltke highlighted positive activity in macro products, currencies and emerging markets as part of that early momentum.
Key points
- Trading revenue is expected to decline in Q1 due to adverse currency swings that affect Deutsche Bank - impacts trading and fixed-income desks.
- Overall investment-bank revenue is projected to remain flat year-over-year as higher origination and advisory income compensates for weaker fixed income.
- Adjusted for foreign exchange, the trading business shows growth; reported first-quarter earnings in 2025 were described as very strong, though the quarter is not yet complete.
Risks and uncertainties
- Currency volatility - foreign-exchange movements have materially affected trading revenue and could continue to do so, influencing results across trading and fixed-income businesses.
- Quarter-end variability - Sewing emphasized the quarter is still in progress, meaning reported outcomes and revenue figures could change before final results are posted.
- Sensitivity of trading results to market conditions - while underlying trading activity appears to grow on an FX-adjusted basis, headline figures remain vulnerable to translation effects and market swings, particularly in currencies and macro-related products.
Contextual note
The remarks reflect management's current expectations and highlight how currency translation can alter headline performance even when underlying activity may be expanding. Management's comments build on a January update from the finance chief pointing to strength across macro products, currencies and emerging markets.