Perceptions of artificial intelligence are evolving from what some investors once saw as a "magical vision of the future" into tangible, near-term applications, and that shift is changing how markets price many technology-related companies, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
Over the past three months, software stocks have suffered double-digit percentage declines as investors reacted to the emergence of new AI models that can replicate services offered by those firms. That selling pressure has not been confined to pure software names; it has spread across a variety of industries as Wall Street grapples with the potential breadth of AI's impact on activities ranging from data analysis to logistics.
The fallout has shown up in major market indicators. The tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite has fallen by more than 5% since January 28, while the group known as the Magnificent Seven of mega-cap technology names is off by more than 8% over the same stretch. Individual large-cap names have suffered steep losses - Microsoft and Amazon have dropped about 17% and 18%, respectively - amid investor concern over whether the massive hyperscaler investments in AI infrastructure will deliver the expected returns.
Deutsche Bank analysts, including Adrian Cox and Galina, described the current environment bluntly: "The markets have suddenly turned into a sniper's alley as the spotlight turns on sectors that could be disrupted by AI automation, disintermediation and obsolescence." In their client note, they said one force behind recent price moves is a growing differentiation in investor thinking between potential AI winners and losers.
The analysts pointed out that investor narratives have shifted away from a more uniform view that AI advances would lift many technology companies together. Since the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT chatbot in 2022, they note, suppliers of the specialized equipment that supports AI have outperformed services and software companies "where it is clear that AI will be transformative but unclear whether they will disrupt or be disrupted." The implication is that market leadership has clustered with infrastructure providers rather than with some of the service and software providers.
When uncertainty surrounds which companies will be disrupted or will capitalize on AI, investors have tended to sell first and sort it out later. "In the case of doubt, investors are selling," the analysts observed.
At the same time, market participants are recalibrating risk as assigning value to AI initiatives in public markets grows more complex. Deutsche Bank flagged that many traders are trying to de-risk positions as the practical effects of AI move from hypothetical possibilities to more imminent realities.
The analysts also raised the prospect that AI models themselves may be moving toward commoditization. "AI models may indeed be becoming commoditised. If that is the case, the true value of AI may rest ultimately in applications that have yet to be invented. That unpredictability gives investors yet another reason to take a break from the frenzy," they wrote.
Summary
Deutsche Bank strategists say AI's transition from concept to concrete use is forcing investors to separate potential winners from losers, triggering broad selling across software and beyond and weighing on major indexes and mega-cap tech names.