DA Davidson has launched coverage across a group of 14 publicly traded U.S. restaurant companies, framing 2026 as a year with a favourable setup for the industry as valuations approach three-year troughs. Analysts led by Matt Curtis said recent signals point to a healthier backdrop for restaurants next year, with a mix of top-line and cost developments that could support earnings momentum.
The research note points to a rebound in consumer sentiment since November that has been strongest among younger and lower-income consumers - demographics that showed the largest pullback the prior year. Alongside this, DA Davidson's proprietary survey data indicates a net increase in respondents expecting to use restaurants in the year ahead.
On the cost side, the firm expects "steadily easing commodities and more predictable labor costs" to deliver clearer bottom-line visibility in 2026. That dynamic, the analysts argue, should set the stage for broad-based margin expansion to resume in the second half of the year.
DA Davidson anticipates that menu price reductions being implemented by many chains could spur traffic growth, and that early guidance from several operators appears achievable. The combination of achievable guidance and initial sales momentum may create scope for upward revisions to analysts' estimates as the year progresses.
The firm identified a subset of names as preferred picks. Leading the list, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) received a buy rating with a $51 price target. DA Davidson highlighted Chipotle's plan to double the frequency of limited-time offerings as an important sales initiative, and said a number of such tactics are likely to drive a meaningful comparable-sales rebound in fiscal 2026.
Wingstop (WING) and Shake Shack (SHAK) were also rated Buy, with price targets of $330 and $125 respectively. Wingstop's digital strategy was cited as a growth facilitator, while Shake Shack's menu innovation, marketing efforts and alternative formats were noted as contributors to its expansion potential.
Other companies assigned Buy ratings include Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB), Dutch Bros (BROS), First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) and Kura Sushi (KRUS). A group of operators were rated Neutral - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI), Brinker International (EAT), CAVA Group (CAVA), El Pollo Loco Holdings (LOCO), Portillo's (PTLO), Starbucks (SBUX) and Sweetgreen (SG).
Overall, DA Davidson concluded that restaurant equities are well positioned to outperform through the remainder of 2026, with a preference for brands that possess pricing power and attractive long-term development potential. The note frames the combination of improving consumer demand patterns and more predictable input costs as the primary drivers that could restore margin expansion later in the year.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Consumer discretionary and restaurant equities may be particularly sensitive to the demand improvements and margin trends DA Davidson outlines.
- Companies with scalable digital platforms or differentiated menu strategies could capture disproportionate share of the expected rebound.
- Commodity and labor cost trajectories will remain key inputs for earnings visibility across the sector.