Options market indicators that had surged on fears of a major market drop have pulled back nearly to readings seen before the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that lifted oil prices. Two separate measures of crash insurance costs - the Nations TailDex Index and the Cboe SKEW Index - have declined from recent highs to levels near those before the February 28 attacks.
While the S&P 500 has not fully recovered to its pre-conflict value, trading about 2% below where it stood before the war began, the price investors are willing to pay for deep out-of-the-money downside protection has eased substantially from its peak.
Scott Nations, president of Nations Indexes, which develops volatility and option strategy index products, underscored the shift in the market's view. "TDEX is signaling that investors are now less worried about a "tail event," or a really steep drop in equity prices, than at any point since the war started," he said. Nations noted that the relatively muted reaction from the S&P 500 aligns with the reduced demand for extreme downside hedges, while also flagging the TailDex reading as an important metric to monitor going forward.
On Monday the TailDex index registered 18.84, just below its closing level of 19.01 on February 27. The Cboe SKEW index finished at 141.49 on Monday, down from 146.67 prior to the air strikes. Both indexes had climbed to multi-month peaks as oil prices spiked and raised concern about a significant market pullback.
Options strategists point out that the specific cost of very deep S&P 500 puts - contracts that would provide protection against roughly a 20% market decline over the next three months - sits only slightly higher than it was immediately before the strikes, according to Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson.
"After hitting multi-year highs at times last week, S&P skew levels have declined incrementally as some of that downside tail bid has faded alongside," Jacobson said. He added that, even with the retreat in skew and tail protection costs, investors are not piling into bets for a strong upside reversal.
"We haven’t really seen that skew shift back towards the upside tail," Jacobson said, suggesting that while protection costs have eased, implied demand for upside insurance or aggressive bullish positioning has not re-emerged in force.
In sum, crash hedging by options buyers has moderated from recent extremes, but market anxiety remains elevated compared with early February and the S&P 500 has yet to reclaim its pre-war levels. Observers say the behavior of tail-risk measures and skew warrants ongoing attention as geopolitical developments and oil-price moves continue to influence investor positioning.