Market participants are preparing for a packed economic calendar on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, with several data releases that could help clarify near-term inflation momentum and petroleum supply dynamics. At the center of attention are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI reports due at 7:30 AM ET, and the Energy Information Administration's weekly crude oil inventories update at 9:30 AM ET. These scheduled releases are commonly used by traders, economists and corporate analysts to refine expectations for pricing trends and demand conditions.
The CPI reports at 7:30 AM ET include both the month-over-month and year-over-year measures of consumer price movements. The month-over-month CPI has a forecast of 0.3% with the prior reading at 0.2%. The year-over-year CPI forecast is 2.4%, matching the previous 2.4% reading. Also at 7:30 AM ET, the monthly Core CPI - which excludes volatile food and energy categories - is forecast to rise 0.2% against a prior monthly gain of 0.3%.
Following the headline CPI data, the EIA's weekly crude oil inventories report arrives at 9:30 AM ET. The prior weekly change in commercial crude oil held by U.S. firms was an increase of 3.475 million barrels. That weekly inventory figure is watched for its implications on petroleum product pricing and broader inflation expectations.
Major economic events and scheduled releases
- 7:30 AM ET - CPI (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%) - Measures the monthly change in consumer goods and services prices and serves as a principal indicator of consumer inflation.
- 7:30 AM ET - CPI year-over-year (Forecast: 2.4%, Previous: 2.4%) - Provides a broader, annualized view of consumer price change.
- 7:30 AM ET - Core CPI (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.3%) - Tracks monthly price changes excluding food and energy to highlight underlying inflation trends.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Previous: 3.475M) - Weekly change in commercial crude oil barrels held by U.S. firms; a gauge of U.S. petroleum supply and a factor in refining and transportation pricing.
Additional notable releases on the day
Beyond the headline CPI and crude stocks updates, a number of other scheduled releases could shape market focus through the trading day. These events span the oil market, mortgage lending activity, regional price indices, Treasury market supply and the federal budget balance.
- 5:00 AM ET - OPEC Monthly Report - A formal monthly assessment of world oil demand, supply and the oil market balance.
- 6:00 AM ET - MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Previous: 6.09%) - The Mortgage Bankers Association's measure of fixed 30-year mortgage lending rates for 80% loan-to-value mortgages.
- 6:00 AM ET - MBA Mortgage Applications (Previous: 11.0%) - Weekly change in new mortgage applications tracked by the MBA.
- 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Market Index (Previous: 377.5) - Aggregates all mortgage applications during the week, including conventional and government loans.
- 6:00 AM ET - MBA Purchase Index (Previous: 158.9) - Measures mortgage applications for single-family home purchases.
- 6:00 AM ET - Mortgage Refinance Index (Previous: 1,637.5) - Tracks refinance application activity for existing mortgages.
- 7:30 AM ET - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks - Public remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman that market participants often use for insight on policy direction.
- 7:30 AM ET - Core CPI year-over-year (Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.5%) - Annual measure of core consumer price change excluding food and energy.
- 7:30 AM ET - CPI Index, n.s.a. (Forecast: 326.79, Previous: 325.25) - Non-seasonally adjusted CPI index value for a fixed basket of goods and services.
- 7:30 AM ET - CPI Index, s.a. (Previous: 326.59) - Seasonally adjusted CPI index figure.
- 7:30 AM ET - CPI, n.s.a. (Previous: 0.37%) - The non-seasonally adjusted monthly percentage change in the consumer price index.
- 7:30 AM ET - Core CPI Index (Previous: 332.79) - Index measuring core consumer prices excluding food and energy.
- 7:30 AM ET - Real Earnings (Previous: 0.5%) - Wages and salaries adjusted for inflation, reflecting changes in purchasing power.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Cushing Oil Inventories (Previous: 1.564M) - Weekly change in crude oil barrels stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI benchmark.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (Previous: 0.429M) - Change in distillate fuel oil inventory levels.
- 9:30 AM ET - Gasoline Inventories (Previous: -1.704M) - Weekly change in commercial gasoline barrels held in inventory.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock (Previous: 0.355M) - Change in heating oil inventory levels.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Crude Imports (Previous: -0.019M) - Weekly change in crude oil imports.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Refinery Crude Runs (Previous: 0.180M) - Change in crude oil processed by refineries.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (Previous: 0.6%) - Percentage change in refinery capacity utilization.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Gasoline Production (Previous: 0.119M) - Weekly change in gasoline production levels.
- 9:30 AM ET - EIA Weekly Distillate Fuel Production (Previous: 0.061M) - Change in distillate fuel production levels.
- 10:00 AM ET - Cleveland CPI (Previous: 0.2%) - Regional consumer price index for the Cleveland metropolitan area.
- 10:00 AM ET - Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Previous: 53.80) - Primary consumer sentiment index summarizing views on economic conditions across key questions.
- 12:00 PM ET - 10-Year Note Auction (Previous: 4.177%) - Treasury auction for the 10-year note, with the prior yield at the noted level.
- 1:00 PM ET - Federal Budget Balance (Forecast: -304.4B, Previous: -95.0B) - The reported difference between federal government income and outlays for the month.
What market participants will be watching
Investors and strategists commonly use the headline and core CPI prints to assess inflation momentum, while the EIA weekly reports offer a short-term view of petroleum inventories that feeds into gasoline, diesel and heating fuel pricing expectations. The mortgage and housing application data, together with the MBA mortgage rates and the Mortgage Market Index, will be observed by housing market participants and fixed-income strategists. The 10-year note auction and the federal budget balance provide information relevant to Treasury market supply and interest rate pricing.
Given the full slate of oil-related EIA releases - including Cushing inventories, product stocks, refinery runs and import flows - participants focused on energy, refining and freight logistics will have multiple data points through the morning that relate directly to refinery throughput and petroleum distribution networks.
Summary
Wednesday, March 11, 2026, brings a concentrated set of inflation and energy releases, led by the monthly CPI and Core CPI at 7:30 AM ET and the EIA crude oil stocks at 9:30 AM ET. A range of additional data - spanning mortgage applications, regional price indexes, refinery metrics, a Treasury auction and the federal budget balance - will add granularity to market participants' reading of inflation, interest rate expectations and petroleum supply conditions.