Chile’s state copper producer Codelco began the year with a pronounced drop in monthly output, according to industry reporting and internal documents that have prompted scrutiny from analysts and former company officials. The miner’s January production totaled 91,000 metric tons, a figure that represents a 1.8% decline from the same month a year earlier and a 47% fall from December.
December had stood out as an exceptional month, when the company reported production of 172,300 metric tons - its largest monthly total so far this decade and far above the monthly average of 105,600 tons recorded from January through November. That spike helped Codelco reach an annual production figure of 1.33 million tons for 2025, a result that was 3,000 tons higher than the prior year.
But the abrupt contrast between December and January has led market observers and former Codelco managers to voice skepticism. A former senior Codelco executive, speaking on condition of anonymity because of ongoing industry work, said such discrepancies are at least questionable and signalled, at minimum, planning shortcomings. Reuters spoke with four former Codelco executives who expressed similar doubts about the December number and the company’s longer-term production goal of 1.7 million tons by 2030.
An internal production document examined by industry reporters indicated unusually large divisional contributions at year-end. The Chuquicamata mine recorded 25,000 tons of oxide production in December, compared with a projected 4,000 tons. The Andina division logged its best monthly result since 2014, and the small Salvador division produced 11,500 tons, well ahead of a 4,600-ton projection.
Codelco attributed the year-end boost to a combination of factors: greater use of stockpiled inventory, unplanned material sources and improved performance in certain divisions. The company told reporters the outcome was notable given the contingencies it faced and said it confirmed the corporation’s technical and human capacity to sustain productive performance.
Specifically, Codelco cited the use of leach yard inventory at Chuquicamata as a contributor to the higher volumes, while Andina’s improvement was credited to better ore grades and increased processing rates. For Salvador, Codelco pointed to the ramp-up of the Rajo Inca project and inventory drawn down after a stoppage at the Potrerillos smelter in June.
Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of mining consultancy GEM, said that while year-end production uplifts are common in the industry, the magnitude of the deviation seen in December should prompt caution. He said that when expectations differ substantially from outcomes, an internal audit is warranted to clarify errors in initial estimates and to enhance forecasting practices.
The state copper commission Cochilco reported the January 91,000-ton figure and noted that it periodically audits Codelco. However, Cochilco said it had no publicly available material explaining the operational, technical or managerial drivers of the divisional deviations and that much of its oversight work is protected by legal confidentiality requirements.
Consultancy Plusmining’s Juan Carlos Guajardo pointed to the use of leach inventories as an element that lifted late-year output, and observed that Codelco has relied on relatively high inventory drawdowns in November and December since 2022. He also highlighted an operational year-end push that can reinforce patterns of December rebounds.
Beyond the short-term questions about inventory and reporting, structural challenges persist. Codelco’s production has been under pressure from declining ore grades and delayed major projects intended to modernize and replace aging capacity. Those structural projects have been plagued by setbacks and cost overruns, limiting their ability to offset grade declines and support sustained output increases.
Guzmán criticised the company’s competitive posture, saying Codelco has struggled to match private-sector peers because of internal bureaucracy and a lack of execution focus. He suggested that, in such environments, accounting practices that make results look better than they are can emerge as a symptom of broader non-competitive behaviour.
The miner also continues to contend with the aftermath of a fatal incident at its El Teniente operation in July, which killed six workers and generated a judicial investigation. Several underground areas were closed following the accident and are restarting gradually, while other sections remain suspended. Codelco said it is reassessing business and development plans to gauge the impact on future production.
Despite the accident, El Teniente reportedly missed its December target by only about 900 tons - a shortfall the company attributed to the mine performing above expectations earlier in the year.
Looking ahead, Codelco has set a production target of 1.344 million tons for 2026, an increase of roughly 0.7% over 2025. Analysts and industry participants have expressed reservations about whether that level is attainable given lingering operational constraints and the questions raised by the stark month-to-month swings in reported output.
What remains clear - the company delivered an extraordinary December that materially aided 2025 totals, but the abrupt drop in January and the reliance on inventory and atypical sources of material have left stakeholders seeking clearer explanations and stronger confidence in future forecasts.