Citizens has reduced its recommendation on Workday, moving the stock from Market Outperform to Market Perform. The brokerage said the change reflects a reassessment of execution risk following the February 8 announcement that founder Aneel Bhusri will once again lead the company as CEO, coupled with a fourth-quarter preannouncement that was "in line with its guidance."
Shares of Workday have slid 33% year to date, while the S&P 500 and the Russell 3000 have registered roughly flat performance over the same period. In Wednesday premarket trading the stock was down about 1% at $141, with Citizens noting valuation metrics that sit below the large-cap technology peer median: an estimated 2.9x enterprise value to revenue for 2027 and 8.4x enterprise value to free cash flow.
Citizens signaled support for Mr. Bhusri’s return, emphasizing his long tenure that includes leadership at PeopleSoft and his potential to accelerate product development and AI-related innovation. At the same time, the firm set out several near-term concerns that led to the downgrade.
First, Citizens said repositioning Workday’s product organization to compete in what it described as the transition from a SaaS-dominated era to an AI era may take meaningful time and require material investment. Second, despite the preannouncement being consistent with company guidance, Citizens cautioned that the company’s complete fourth-quarter results could contain elements that disappoint investors upon closer inspection. Third, the brokerage noted that Workday did not reaffirm its fiscal 2027 subscription revenue growth target of 13% in its Form 8-K, raising the risk that updated guidance may fall short of market expectations.
Competitive pressures in agent orchestration were also highlighted by Citizens. The brokerage named products including ServiceNow Control Tower from ServiceNow, Microsoft Agent 365 from Microsoft, and Frontier from OpenAI as examples of increasing rivalry in this space that could challenge Workday’s product positioning and growth trajectory.
On the modeling front, Citizens kept its fourth-quarter non-GAAP earnings-per-share estimate unchanged at $2.35 on revenue of $2.52 billion. For fiscal 2027 the firm maintained an EPS estimate of $10.70 on revenue of $10.7 billion. However, it trimmed its fiscal 2028 EPS forecast to $12.72 from $13.13.
In addition to these model changes and strategic concerns, the downgrade reflects Citizens’ view that management transitions and stronger competition are factors weighing on valuation relative to peers. Investors will be watching the full fourth-quarter results and any updated guidance closely for clarity on execution as Workday navigates the leadership change and heightened AI competition.
Key points
- Citizens downgraded Workday to Market Perform after Aneel Bhusri’s announced return as CEO and a Q4 preannouncement that matched guidance.
- Workday shares are down 33% year to date and trade below large-cap tech peer medians on EV/revenue and EV/free cash flow metrics.
- Brokerage maintained near-term earnings and revenue estimates for Q4 and fiscal 2027 but cut fiscal 2028 EPS.
Risks / Uncertainties
- Execution risk as leadership transition may delay product repositioning for an "AI era" - impacts software and enterprise technology sectors.
- Potential for full fourth-quarter results to disappoint when released - impacts investor sentiment across large-cap tech stocks.
- Failure to reiterate the 13% fiscal 2027 subscription revenue growth target raises the possibility that updated guidance could undershoot expectations - affects software revenue forecasts and valuation assumptions.