Citigroup has revised downward its 12-month outlooks for the two largest cryptocurrencies, attributing the changes to slowed momentum on U.S. legislation that had been expected to create regulatory catalysts. With debate in the Senate at an impasse and limited time for approval in 2026, the brokerage cut its bitcoin target to $112,000 from $143,000 and trimmed its ethereum estimate to $3,175 from $4,304.
"Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing," Citi strategist Alex Saunders said in a note on Monday.
Against a recessionary macro backdrop, Citi outlined downside scenarios in which bitcoin could decline to $58,000 and ether to $1,198. The firm also provided a bull case driven by stronger end-investor demand that would place bitcoin as high as $165,000 and ether at $4,488.
Market prices at the time of Citi's note showed bitcoin trading near $74,298.11 and ether near $2,345.51 as of 0750 GMT on Tuesday.
Citi highlighted the particular sensitivity of ethereum to on-chain user activity, noting that recent metrics have been weak. The bank nevertheless said that trends around stablecoins and tokenization could lift interest and usage over time.
Legislative prospects have dimmed in the Senate, according to Citi, with the Clarity Act's chances falling amid disagreements on stablecoin rules and a narrowing approval window into 2026. The bank also noted political dynamics that could further reduce the bill's prospects: passage would require support from at least seven Senate Democrats, and a potential Democratic pickup in the November mid-term elections would, Citi argued, make passage less likely because Democratic lawmakers are more divided on overhauling federal rules to accommodate cryptocurrencies.
Some Democrats are reportedly advocating for language that would bar elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures, an issue that has attracted attention in light of scrutiny around the Trump family's World Liberty Financial project. Citi said analysts view that provision as a factor that could lower the likelihood that President Donald Trump would sign the bill if it reached his desk.
On market behavior, Citi stated that bitcoin is likely to trade in a range while the market awaits legislative developments, with about $70,000 representing an important level tied to the pre-U.S. election price. The bank also observed lawmakers calling for tighter anti-money-laundering rules as they consider bill language.
This reporting summarizes Citigroup's updated near-term price forecasts, scenario analyses and the legislative considerations the bank cited as drivers of its revised outlook.