Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) has seen its stock fall by over 30% since reporting third-quarter results. Citi's Tyler Radke argues that the magnitude of the pullback is unwarranted and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares, while reducing his price target from $300 to $270 to reflect software multiple compression.
Radke characterized the sell-off as driven by a combination of a "smaller beat and broader software AI disruption + valuation concerns," but added that the decline appears "overdone, with Snowflake featuring one of the stronger AI-proof consumption business models and strong intra/post-Q checks."
According to the analyst, Citi’s channel checks were "relatively more constructive," with continued momentum in both Cortex and Snowflake Intelligence. Partners and customers conveyed that Cortex adoption has broadened, with most customers now using Cortex in some fashion - a notable shift over the prior six months, Radke said.
Radke highlighted recent large customer engagements as evidence of demand. He pointed to a substantial $200 million deal involving both Anthropic and OpenAI and noted collaboration with Google Gemini as underscoring customer interest in Cortex. He also observed that Cortex is moving toward more meaningful monetization following a new AI disclosure of $100 million.
Snowflake Intelligence is likewise reported to be delivering tangible returns. Radke cited examples from financial services and retail customers that have seen consumption rise by an estimated 20% to 30%, suggesting meaningful return on investment for certain use cases.
On the demand side, Radke referenced an acceleration in financial services IT spending seen in Citi’s CIO survey, which he believes could support migration activity to Snowflake’s platform. He further noted comments from Snowflake’s CEO, Sridhar Ramaswamy, indicating that Intelligence now covers more than 2,000 customers, up from over 1,200 at the fiscal third-quarter call.
Looking ahead, Radke expects the upcoming quarter to deliver a beat "in-line with 'good beat' of ~3-4%," even though he acknowledged a higher sequential guide and the potential for less favorable holiday timing. For fiscal 2027 (FY27), he anticipates an initial revenue outlook in the mid-to-high 20% range, driven by a ramping AI pipeline and data engineering momentum, including contributions from Snowflake's recent acquisition of Observe.
Radke left his FY27 topline estimate roughly 1% above consensus and said he expects "a slightly better beat and guide ahead for FY27." The analyst reduced the target price to $270 to account for multiple contraction but maintained the Buy rating based on consumption resilience and AI-related monetization progress.
Note: This analysis reflects Citi analyst commentary and the specific points cited by Radke; it does not add additional forecasts or external context beyond those provided.