Citi has moved KLA Corp onto a 30-day positive Catalyst Watch as investors focus on the chip-equipment maker’s investor day scheduled for 12 March in New York. The bank said the event should clarify KLA’s long-term financial framework and could include product announcements that influence the company’s outlook.
Focus areas for investors
Citi analyst Atif Malik flagged several topics that should attract attention at the event: an updated target model from KLA, the path for process-control intensity going forward, and potential avenues for further outperformance and market-share gains. The bank expects management to address those items and to lift the company’s target model.
Bank’s expectations and scenario analysis
Citi outlined a forecast in which KLA could reach $24 billion in revenue and $68 in EPS by 2030 under a $200 billion wafer-fab equipment (WFE) backdrop. That view rests on increasing process-control intensity and modest improvement in gross margins to 63% from 2026 levels, the note said.
The bank also described a constructive long-term backdrop based on top-down WFE scenarios. Citi’s bull case envisions 2026/2027 WFE of $140 billion/$180 billion respectively, and the bank indicated $200 billion WFE is likely achievable by 2030. Within the large-cap semiconductor equipment peer group, Citi said KLA offers the most upside - approximately 35% on its 2027 WFE assumptions.
Structural tailwinds and recent performance
Citi emphasized that process-control intensity is becoming structurally larger and more stable, a development the bank expects will benefit KLA in coming years. At the same time, the note acknowledged that KLA’s stock has lagged peers since its recent earnings report amid concerns about a weaker WFE outlook and shifts in process-control trends. Despite that underperformance, Citi maintained that the core investment thesis - elevated process-control intensity coupled with share gains - remains intact.
The bank reiterated its Buy rating and said it expects KLA to both raise its target model and possibly introduce new advanced packaging products at the investor day.
Third-party evaluation mention
The original release also included a reference to ProPicks AI, which evaluates KLAC alongside other companies using more than 100 financial metrics and cited past winners such as Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). The mention noted that the AI highlights stocks with attractive risk-reward profiles based on current data.
Contact - For further detail, investors should review Citi’s note and KLA’s investor-day materials when they are published.