Citi Research moved Nordex SE (ETR:NDXG) to a "neutral" stance from its previous rating, flagging valuation as the principal reason for the change despite forecasting stronger-than-consensus earnings for the wind-turbine manufacturer. The stock fell more than 4% on Tuesday following the note.
Analysts at Citi highlighted the dramatic share-price appreciation Nordex has already delivered in 2025, noting a 158% climb over the year and a further 12% increase year-to-date. The firm pointed to strong order intake as a key driver, reporting orders in excess of 10 GW during 2025.
Citi expects Nordex to provide updated guidance at its full-year 2025 results. That guidance is anticipated to include a revised mid-term EBITDA margin target of about 10%, raised from a previous target of roughly 8%. The brokerage also expects the company to declare a dividend for the first time.
On earnings, Citi is notably more optimistic than the market. Its 2027 earnings-per-share projection stands about 26% higher than consensus forecasts, according to the research note. Still, Citi said valuation ratios based on its forecasts make the stock appear "somewhat full." The firm calculates that Nordex currently trades at around 15 times its 2027 price-to-earnings and roughly 8 times enterprise value-to-EBITA on what it described as a much higher earnings base.
The analysts underscored operating leverage as the primary mechanism for incremental margin expansion going forward, which places a premium on continued strong order flow. Citi warned that following the recent run-up in the share price and order activity, the benchmark for outperformance on orders has been raised, making future upside contingent on continued execution and sustained demand.
Contextual note - The research action reflects a trade-off in Citi's view: clear potential for earnings growth and a firmer margin outlook versus a valuation that the bank judges to be elevated absent further positive surprises in order intake.