Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner moved to a bullish tactical posture on U.S. stocks Wednesday, citing what he describes as a culmination of washed-out sentiment and seasonal patterns that typically support a rebound - even as markets remain sensitive to volatility stemming from the U.S. war on Iran.
Rubner, who leads equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, said he is reversing his earlier call for weakness in February, a prediction that he noted proved accurate. In a client note distributed Wednesday, he set out expectations for a recovery through mid-March as volatility begins to normalize.
"We take off our tactical bearish call and see scope for a bounce into mid-month, with volatility normalization acting as a catalyst," Rubner wrote in the note.
He pointed to February's sharp selloff - which left stocks with their worst monthly performance since March 2025 - as a driver of defensive positioning and heightened hedging across market participants. That defensive posture, Rubner argued, could create a favorable backdrop for rallies if geopolitical tensions lessen.
Rubner said his change in stance also reflects feedback from clients around the world and signs that bearish sentiment has become overly crowded. "The bear camp has become too popular," he wrote.
Citadel Securities' data show that retail investors kept buying aggressively through the downturn. January was the largest net buying month on record on the firm's platform, while February ranked fifth in the firm's history and was the strongest month of retail net buying since April 2021. Rubner emphasized retail's persistent participation: "Retail remains the strongest hand in the entire market."
Further metrics underline persistent retail engagement: year-to-date, the average net notional dollar value traded by retail investors has been 2.5 times larger on down days than on up days, and that ratio climbed to 4.3 times in February, indicating sustained dip-buying amid rising volatility. Average daily retail options volume this year is about 14% above 2025 levels and nearly 47% above the 2020-2025 average, which Rubner interprets as continued participation rather than episodic speculation.
Another structural factor Rubner highlighted is the looming March options expiration. Roughly $5 trillion in notional options value - equal to 35% of U.S. options exposure - is scheduled to expire by March 20, the largest March expiration on record. Much of that exposure stems from call overwriting, a pattern that has prompted option dealers to sell into rallies as they reset hedges.
Rubner summarized the current microstructure as asymmetric: downward moves have been largely absorbed by the market, while upward moves remain constrained by dealer selling and positioning. "Moves lower have been absorbed. Moves higher are constrained," he wrote. "A reset in positioning and volatility could open the door for a more durable re-risking window into April."
Given the factors Rubner outlined - extreme bearish sentiment, robust retail buying, elevated options activity and seasonality - his note signals a tactical shift toward expecting a short-term market bounce, while leaving open the continuing influence of geopolitical-driven volatility.