Stock Markets February 20, 2026

Catena posts modest beat on earnings but disappoints on dividend target

Swedish logistics landlord delivers stronger rent and profit growth in 2025 but proposed payout falls short of market expectations

By Maya Rios
Catena posts modest beat on earnings but disappoints on dividend target

Catena AB reported full-year 2025 results with EPRA earnings per share of SEK25.62, slightly above analyst estimates, supported by rising rental income and net operating surplus. The board proposed a dividend increase to SEK9.5 per share that nonetheless missed market expectations by about 6%. A large portfolio acquisition will lift leverage metrics.

Key Points

  • EPRA EPS of SEK25.62 beat estimates by about 1% while net profit per share rose 41% to SEK27.24 - impacts real estate and capital markets.
  • Rental income and net operating surplus grew strongly - rental income rose 21% to SEK2,651 million and net operating surplus rose 23% to SEK1,789 million - impacts logistics property sector and revenue-sensitive valuations.
  • Board proposed dividend of SEK9.5 per share, up from SEK9.0, but approximately 6% below market expectations; large SEK8.8 billion portfolio acquisition will raise loan-to-value to near 44% - impacts balance-sheet metrics and credit-sensitive investors.

Overview

Catena AB reported full-year 2025 results that marginally beat consensus on earnings per share but missed dividend expectations, according to a research note published alongside the company figures. The logistics-focused property owner recorded EPRA earnings per share of SEK25.62 for the year, a 20% improvement versus the prior year and roughly 1% above analyst forecasts. Net profit per share rose 41% to SEK27.24.

Operating performance

Rental income increased 21% year-over-year to SEK2,651 million. Like-for-like rental growth for the year was 4%, up from 3.4% in the first nine months of 2025. The company reported a 23% rise in net operating surplus to SEK1,789 million, and profit from property management climbed 28% to SEK1,613 million. On a per-share basis, profit from property management reached SEK26.72, up 18% year-over-year.

Occupancy and asset values

Occupancy at the end of December 2025 remained stable at 96.7%, unchanged from the prior year. Catena reported like-for-like asset values up 1.1%, in line with estimates. EPRA net tangible assets per share increased 5% year-over-year to SEK431, but this measure fell short of analyst expectations by 1%.

Portfolio activity and capital allocation

During 2025 the company acquired four properties valued at SEK1,906 million, adding 138,000 square meters of space. Investment in new builds, conversions and extensions totalled SEK1,147 million. The company sold three properties for SEK98 million. Separately, Catena confirmed the acquisition of a Nordic portfolio comprising 20 properties for SEK8.8 billion, primarily located in Sweden.

Balance sheet and funding metrics

At year-end the loan-to-value ratio stood at 39%. Management expects this ratio to rise to approximately 44% once the recently announced Nordic portfolio acquisition is accounted for. The interest coverage ratio remained at 3.9 times and net debt-to-EBITDA was reported at 7.8 times. The company’s average cost of debt was 3.2% for the period. Catena currently trades at 18 times price-to-funds from operations.

Dividend

The board proposed a dividend of SEK9.5 per share for 2025, an increase from SEK9.0 in 2024. Despite the raise, the proposed payout was about 6% below market expectations.


Bottom line

Catena’s full-year results show solid underlying rental and profit growth alongside stable occupancy and modest asset-value appreciation. However, the proposed dividend failed to meet market expectations and the planned SEK8.8 billion portfolio purchase will lift leverage metrics, factors that will shape investor focus in the near term.

Risks

  • Dividend disappointment - the proposed SEK9.5 per share payout was below market expectations, which could affect investor sentiment in listed real estate and capital markets.
  • Rising leverage - the loan-to-value ratio is expected to increase from 39% to about 44% after the SEK8.8 billion Nordic portfolio acquisition, presenting balance-sheet and funding risk for the property sector.
  • Valuation and NAV gap - EPRA net tangible assets per share rose 5% to SEK431 but missed analyst estimates by 1%, which may influence equity valuation and investor assessment of asset valuation accuracy.

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