Evercore analysts are increasingly discussing the possibility that artificial intelligence could alter how payments are routed, potentially reducing the influence of major card networks such as Visa and Mastercard. The firm describes a concept called agentic commerce - a scenario in which AI assistants make purchases on behalf of consumers and automatically choose payment methods.
In that model, the locus of payment decision-making shifts from a merchant checkout page to the software layer that intermediates transactions. If platforms or AI agents prioritize lower transaction fees or speedier settlement, they could in principle steer purchases toward payment options other than traditional card rails.
At the most extreme end of the spectrum, Evercore says AI systems could directly connect buyers and sellers using alternative rails such as stablecoins or other settlement mechanisms. In that outcome, the role of card networks in the payments chain would be diminished over time, potentially eroding their pricing power.
However, Evercore emphasizes that such a transition would not be simple or rapid. Achieving that outcome would require a long chain of changes across the payments ecosystem. The analysts list several specific conditions that would need to be met - merchant approval for automated purchasing, material shifts in how consumers fund purchases, new frameworks to allocate liability in digital transactions, and much broader merchant acceptance of alternative payment rails.
Those steps represent significant hurdles, particularly in developed markets, the firm notes. For that reason, Evercore’s current stance is more measured: while AI-driven agents could increase the ability of merchants or platforms to nudge payments toward lower-cost alternatives, the evidence suggests any transition will be gradual.
Key constraints include merchant incentives, entrenched consumer payment habits, trust in existing payment systems, and the legal and regulatory frameworks that define liability for digital payments. Given those constraints, the near-term consequences of agentic commerce are likely to focus on which firms control the customer interface and how they optimize available payment options, rather than an abrupt abandonment of card networks.
Moreover, card networks could adapt and retain a central role by offering services that remain valuable to any digital commerce ecosystem - including tokenization, security, identity verification, and settlement infrastructure. By supplying those capabilities, networks such as Visa and Mastercard could participate in and support the evolving architecture of commerce rather than being fully displaced.
Investor sentiment has already shown sensitivity to the debate. The rise of AI-driven shopping concepts has weighed on market perceptions of card networks, contributing to recent pressure on valuation multiples as investors attempt to assess long-term disruption risk. Even so, Evercore’s research frames this as a potential long-term evolution with numerous barriers rather than an imminent collapse of current payment rails.
Key points
- Agentic commerce could transfer control over payment choices from merchant checkouts to AI-driven software platforms, potentially prioritizing lower-cost or faster-settling options - impacting payments and fintech sectors.
- Evercore sees a plausible extreme scenario in which transactions are routed over alternative rails such as stablecoins, which would reduce card networks' role, but this would require many systemic changes - affecting merchants, payment processors, and digital asset rails.
- Near-term impact is more likely to be about customer-interface control and payment optimization rather than a swift displacement of card networks; card firms could retain roles through tokenization, security, identity services, and settlement infrastructure.
Risks and uncertainties
- Broad merchant acceptance of automated purchasing by AI agents is uncertain - merchants across retail and e-commerce would influence the pace of any shift away from card rails.
- Changes in consumer funding behavior and trust in alternative payment systems are not guaranteed and pose a risk to the feasibility of non-card rails - consumer finance and banking sectors are impacted.
- Legal and liability frameworks for digital transactions would need to evolve significantly; uncertainty over liability allocation could slow adoption of new payment rails and affect regulatory and compliance landscapes.