BTIG has assembled a seven-name watchlist of real estate-related stocks it favors for early 2026, spanning industrial logistics, defense-oriented office space, retail shopping centers, commercial mortgage platforms and homebuilding. The selections reflect the firmstimated opportunity set as market conditions shift after a volatile 2025.
Prologis (NYSE:PLD) - Industrial lead
BTIG designates Prologis as its top industrial REIT pick for the first half of 2026. The company delivered a 24.6% total return in 2025 despite broader market volatility, and BTIG points to signs that warehouse oversupply has peaked as a reason Prologis could benefit from improving fundamentals. BTIG values Prologis at $155 per share, an implied total return of 24.6% from current levels.
BTIG emphasizes Prologis uild-to-suit pipeline and its 5.2 gigawatts of data center power capacity as meaningful growth drivers. On the company front, Prologis reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.49, above analyst forecasts, on revenue of $2.1 billion. Following those results, Freedom Capital Markets moved the stock to a Hold rating and Truist Securities trimmed its price target, signaling some divergence among analysts despite solid quarterly numbers.
COPT Defense Properties (NYSE:CDP) - Office sector pick
BTIG selects COPT Defense Properties as its top office REIT for early 2026, citing the tailwinds from the recently passed $1 trillion defense budget. In particular, the $175 billion Golden Dome program allocation is expected to underpin development opportunities at CDP ssets such as its Redstone Arsenal portfolio, a core concentration for the company. BTIG assigns a $38 price target to CDP, equating to a projected 41.2% total return.
On recent performance, CDP posted fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $197.36 million, topping forecasts, and reported full-year funds from operations that exceeded its guidance. After the results, Jefferies and Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price targets on the company.
Starwood Property Trust (NYSE:STWD) - Top SMID-cap commercial mortgage REIT
BTIG's leading SMID-cap commercial mortgage REIT pick is Starwood Property Trust. The firm highlights Starwood's diversified platform - spanning commercial lending, infrastructure, property ownership and special servicing - as providing both earnings growth potential and a degree of downside protection. BTIG's $24 price target corresponds to roughly a 1.24x price-to-book multiple.
Starwood expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties, adding 468 triple-net lease properties. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025.
TPG RE Finance Trust (NYSE:TRTX) - Second SMID-cap mortgage pick
Joining Starwood among BTIG's SMID-cap commercial mortgage favorites is TPG RE Finance Trust. BTIG notes the company's year-over-year growth in its loan book and high asset quality, with just two loans on watch lists. With leverage at 2.64x - below its historical 3.25x level - TRTX is positioned to deploy capital for new loans in 2026. BTIG's target for the stock is $11 per share, implying a price-to-book ratio near 0.98x.
D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) - Large-cap homebuilder selection
BTIG names D.R. Horton as its preferred large-cap homebuilder for the early part of 2026. Although some expect weak housing demand, BTIG points to DHI's spec production model, substantial local market share, broad geographic footprint and a land-light balance sheet as factors that should allow it to outperform peers. The firm's emphasis on finished lots could help limit the depth of gross margin declines versus consensus. BTIG sets a $186 price target for DHI.
Regency Centers (NYSE:REG) - Large-cap retail REIT pick
For retail REIT exposure, BTIG favors Regency Centers, citing the company's high-quality grocery-anchored portfolio as a driver of outperformance. BTIG points to strong leasing momentum and positive re-leasing spreads as operational strengths. Regency also stands out among peers as the only ground-up shopping center developer, a capability BTIG views as a competitive advantage. The firm values REG at $79 per share.
Broadstone Net Lease (NYSE:BNL) - SMID-cap net lease pick
Rounding out the list is Broadstone Net Lease, BTIG's chosen SMID-cap net lease REIT. BNL returned nearly 17% in total return for 2025 and has reoriented its portfolio toward industrial and retail properties while developing a build-to-suit pipeline. Trading at a discount relative to peers, BTIG sees potential valuation upside and assigns a $21 price target.
Collectively, BTIG's selections span property types and business models - from logistics and data center capacity to defense-aligned office, grocery-anchored retail, and mortgage lending platforms - reflecting varied pathways to earnings and valuation appreciation as market dynamics evolve into 2026.
Summary
BTIG identified seven real estate-related stocks to watch in early 2026, covering industrial REITs, defense-focused office, commercial mortgage REITs, a major homebuilder and retail and net-lease REITs. Several names carry price targets implying significant upside relative to current levels, supported by company fundamentals, portfolio moves and anticipated demand drivers such as defense spending and re-leasing strength.
Key Points
- BTIG's top industrial pick is Prologis, highlighted for its build-to-suit pipeline and 5.2 gigawatts of data center power capacity, with a $155 valuation target.
- Defense-oriented COPT Defense Properties and retail specialist Regency Centers are BTIG's preferred plays in office and retail, respectively, each supported by recent earnings and operational narratives.
- BTIG includes both Starwood and TPG RE Finance Trust as its SMID-cap commercial mortgage REIT selections, and singles out D.R. Horton and Broadstone Net Lease for homebuilding and net-lease exposure.
Risks and Uncertainties
- Market volatility remains a factor - Prologis posted strong returns in 2025 despite a volatile backdrop, underscoring that sector performance can be affected by broader market swings.
- Demand risk in housing - BTIG notes expectations for weak housing demand, which is a headwind for homebuilders including D.R. Horton despite the firm's confidence in its operating model.
- Asset-quality and credit exposure in mortgage REITs - TPG RE Finance Trust has two watch-listed loans, illustrating the potential for credit-related uncertainty within commercial mortgage portfolios.
Tags
- realestate
- reit
- industrial
- mortgage
- homebuilding