Brazilian authorities are evaluating a plan to assign company-specific beef export quotas for shipments bound for China, Luis Rua, trade secretary at Brazil's ministry of agriculture, said in a telephone interview on Wednesday. The proposal is intended to "organize the industry" after China announced safeguard measures limiting imports and protecting its domestic producers, Rua said.
Rua described the idea of firm-level quotas as "an ongoing discussion." He said the government is consulting with private-sector participants to identify ways "to avoid an uncontrolled race," referring to the risk of exporters trying to accelerate shipments to China - a dynamic that could, for example, depress prices.
The quota-assignment plan could be debated as soon as Thursday during a meeting of Brazil's Foreign Trade Chamber (CAMEX), Rua added. The discussions follow Beijing's decision to apply an additional 55% tariff to beef imports that exceed quota thresholds for major suppliers including Brazil, Australia and the United States.
China's safeguard measures took effect on January 1 and will remain in place for three years, with the total quota scheduled to grow annually. Under the framework, the aggregate quota for countries subject to the new safeguard rules is set at 2.7 million metric tons for 2026, a figure broadly comparable to China's record 2.87 million tons of overall beef imports in 2024.
China is Brazil's largest trading partner by overall trade flows. In the latest year, Brazil shipped a record 1.648 million metric tons of fresh beef to China.
Beijing's announcement specifies Brazil's individual import quota at 1.106 million tons in 2026, rising to 1.128 million tons in 2027 and 1.151 million tons in 2028. Rua said it is still unclear whether volumes that were in transit just before China's announcement - estimated by industry participants at about 250,000 tons - will be counted toward Brazil's 2026 quota.
The potential for government-assigned quotas aims to regulate flows of product into China and reduce the possibility of disorderly shipment patterns among exporters. How quickly CAMEX moves on the proposal and what allocation mechanism might be adopted remain points for near-term discussion between public and private stakeholders.