Stock Markets February 12, 2026

Bombardier Posts Strong Q4 as Jet Deliveries Climb; 2026 Guidance Targets Robust Revenue and Free Cash Flow

Canadian business jet maker cites higher deliveries and tariff-free U.S. access under USMCA, while trade-policy uncertainty remains

By Avery Klein
Bombardier Posts Strong Q4 as Jet Deliveries Climb; 2026 Guidance Targets Robust Revenue and Free Cash Flow

Bombardier reported a near 19% year-over-year increase in fourth-quarter revenue to $3.69 billion, driven by higher business jet deliveries. The company issued 2026 guidance calling for revenue above $10 billion, free cash flow of $600 million to $1 billion, and more than 157 deliveries, while warning of tariff and trade-policy uncertainty tied to a review of the USMCA.

Key Points

  • Bombardier’s fourth-quarter revenue rose nearly 19% to $3.69 billion year-over-year, driven by increased business jet deliveries.
  • Management projects 2026 revenue above $10 billion, free cash flow of $600 million to $1 billion, and plans to deliver more than 157 aircraft.
  • Tariff-free delivery to the U.S. under the USMCA has helped sales, but the agreement’s review and recent comments from U.S. leadership create uncertainty for cross-border trade in aircraft.

Bombardier said on Thursday that revenue for the fourth quarter increased to $3.69 billion, up almost 19% from the same period a year earlier, as the Montreal-based business jet manufacturer delivered more aircraft in the final three months of 2025.

The company attributed part of its performance to robust demand from high-net-worth buyers and to the tariff-free movement of its aircraft into the United States under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) - an important factor given the U.S. is the world’s largest market for private aviation. Bombardier also flagged that U.S.-Canada trade tensions persist, which could affect that dynamic going forward.

For fiscal 2026, Bombardier put forward a target of more than $10 billion in revenue and projected free cash flow in a range between $600 million and $1 billion. Management also expects to deliver in excess of 157 aircraft during the year.

Despite the upbeat operational and financial outlook, the company faces potential tariff exposure tied to the status of the USMCA. The trade agreement is scheduled for review later this year, and U.S. President Donald Trump has recently described the pact as "irrelevant" for the United States, injecting uncertainty into the negotiations among the three North American parties.

Reports indicate that Trump has privately contemplated withdrawing from the USMCA, a development that could complicate ongoing renegotiations between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Earlier in the year, the U.S. President threatened to decertify Bombardier’s large-cabin Global jets and impose 50% import tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft until Transport Canada certified several planes built by U.S. rival Gulfstream.

Bombardier manufactures its business jets in Canada but maintains a defense unit in Wichita, Kansas. The company’s cross-border manufacturing footprint and its reliance on tariff-free access to U.S. customers make its operations sensitive to changes in trade policy.

On the regulatory front, the head of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said on Tuesday that he expects the certification issue will be resolved soon, noting that Transport Canada is set to certify Gulfstream jets. That development could reduce one source of trade friction if it proceeds as indicated.

On an adjusted basis, Bombardier reported quarterly earnings of $4.80 per share, compared with $3.01 per share in the prior-year quarter.


Contextual note - The company’s operational strength in deliveries and guidance for 2026 underline demand resilience among affluent purchasers and the commercial significance of tariff-free U.S. access. However, the company is exposed to political and regulatory developments that could alter its cost structure or market access.

Risks

  • Potential changes to the USMCA or U.S. trade policy could lead to tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft, affecting Bombardier’s access to the U.S. market and cost structure - impacting the aerospace and manufacturing sectors.
  • Regulatory certification disputes between Transport Canada and U.S. authorities, and related threats such as decertification or high import tariffs, create uncertainty for Bombardier’s commercial aircraft deliveries - impacting aviation OEMs and defense contractors.
  • Political developments and renegotiations involving the U.S., Canada and Mexico could alter trade terms or introduce delays, weighing on investor confidence in aerospace supply chains and cross-border operations.

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