Stock Markets March 18, 2026

BofA Flags European Software Stocks as Buying Candidates After Steep Selloff

Bank of America highlights names perceived as resilient to AI disruption and cites attractive valuations after a 35% sector decline

By Leila Farooq
BofA Flags European Software Stocks as Buying Candidates After Steep Selloff

Bank of America analysts say the recent 35% drop in European software stocks since mid-2025 has created selective buying opportunities. While concerns over generative AI and broader macro risks tied to Middle East conflicts have pressured the sector, BofA argues that fundamentals remain largely intact and identifies several companies with durable positioning and discounted valuations.

Key Points

  • European software sector has dropped about 35% since mid-2025 amid concerns over generative AI and macro risks tied to Middle East conflicts, creating selective buying opportunities identified by Bank of America.
  • Bank of America distinguishes lower-risk segments (core banking, ERP, PLM) from higher-risk single-point solutions and highlights names with resilient fundamentals and discounted valuations, including SAP, Temenos, Sage, Planisware and others.
  • Quarterly results were mixed: 36% of companies beat revenue expectations and 36% missed; software growth slowed to 7.5% in Q4 from 9.6% in Q3, while IT services held steadier.

European software equities have seen sharp declines, yet Bank of America analysts contend the selloff has opened up attractive entry points in names they judge to be relatively insulated from the most disruptive effects of generative AI. The group has fallen about 35% since mid-2025 amid investor concerns around AI-driven disruption as well as macro uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East.

Analysts note that the most recent quarterly reporting season produced mixed outcomes: 36% of companies topped revenue expectations while 36% missed them. On a macro level for the sector, software revenue growth slowed to 7.5% in the fourth quarter from 9.6% in the third quarter, although information technology services showed greater stability.


Sector exposure and risk profile

Within software, Bank of America separates segments by their vulnerability to AI-driven disruption. Core banking systems, enterprise resource planning (ERP) platforms, and product lifecycle management (PLM) applications are viewed as having lower exposure to displacement by generative AI, according to the analysts. By contrast, single-point solutions - narrow, standalone products focused on one task - are considered to face higher disruption risk.


Featured large-cap and mid-cap names

SAP - SAP is singled out among BofA’s preferred large-cap software holdings for 2026 and is included in the bank’s list of 25 stocks for the year. Although SAP’s cloud computing bookings in the fourth quarter marginally missed expectations, analysts highlight ongoing traction in AI-related initiatives and business data cloud offerings as constructive. The shares trade at roughly 23 times price-to-earnings, on assumptions of an approximate 18% earnings per share compound annual growth rate to 2028, and the valuation represents a sizable discount to global peers in the analysts’ view. During fourth quarter results, the company announced a €10 billion share buyback program, equivalent to about 5% of market capitalization. SAP also proposed distributing around €2.92 billion in dividends for its 2025 earnings, which translates to a €2.50 per-share dividend - a 6.4% increase year-on-year.

Temenos - Despite reporting solid fourth quarter results and bullish guidance for 2026 and 2028, Temenos shares have declined nearly 9% year-to-date. The 2026 guidance was 5% to 6% ahead of consensus for earnings before interest and taxes and free cash flow. BofA’s coverage indicates Temenos is among the firms best positioned against risks from generative AI. The stock trades at 15.7 times adjusted enterprise value-to-EBITDA, about 25% below its 10-year average. In a recent update, Temenos reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and adjusted EBIT that exceeded analyst forecasts by 5% and 21%, respectively.

Sage - Analysts attribute roughly a 9% compound annual growth rate to 2028 for Sage, along with an expected annual margin expansion of around 70 basis points. A 25% price uplift on an AI-enhanced Accounting Premium tier is identified as evidence of upside potential tied to product monetization. Sage’s valuation sits broadly in line with European peers, reflected in an estimated 4.3% free cash flow to equity yield. The Sage Group reported a 10% increase in total revenue for the first quarter of 2026, driven by a 24% surge in cloud-native revenue.

Planisware - Planisware is highlighted for a robust revenue and EBITDA growth profile, with compound annual growth rates to 2028 of 13% and 14%, respectively - figures BofA notes are 30% above the sector averages. The company’s focus on complex integrations and workflow management is viewed as a protective factor versus AI-only entrants. Planisware’s valuation is about a 10% discount to peers. For the second half of 2025, the company announced a 10.2% increase in revenue on a constant currency basis, reaching EUR 198 million.

TeamViewer - Analysts argue the market underestimates TeamViewer’s expanding solutions portfolio, which includes offerings such as Digital Employee Experience and Autonomous Endpoint Management. The stock’s free cash flow yield is cited at 29%, implying the shares reflect expectations of a comparatively short cash flow horizon.

Nemetschek - Nemetschek’s primary markets are architecture, engineering, and construction, areas characterized by highly technical workflows and substantial regulatory requirements. Those features are identified as barriers that should limit displacement by AI-only entrants.

Capgemini - Capgemini reported better-than-expected fourth quarter results and has scheduled a capital markets day for May 27, the first such event since 2021. Shares trade at what BofA describes as an attractive 40% to 50% discount to global peers.

Netcompany - Netcompany’s proprietary products and platforms across tax, customs, and defense create positioning for digital transformation opportunities. Analysts forecast organic compound annual growth rates from 2026 to 2028 of 8% for revenue, 12% for adjusted EBITDA, and 19% for free cash flow.

Sopra Steria - Management expressed confidence in 2026 organic growth guidance of 1% to 2%, underpinned by a recovery in France and momentum in Italy and Spain. Sopra Steria’s valuation is described as compelling at 7.3 times 2026 price-to-earnings, which is roughly 30% below its five-year median.

Adyen - Adyen is included among BofA’s 25 stocks for 2026. Even though its fourth quarter results and 2026 guidance were slightly below expectations, analysts view the approximately 22% decline in the share price as an overreaction. The stock trades at a record low enterprise value-to-EBITDA and at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 times on 2026 EBITDA.

Wise - Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy rating on Wise after what it described as strong third quarter results. The firm raised its price objective by 7% to 1,125p, corresponding to a 35% potential upside, reflecting estimate revisions and higher terminal EBIT margins. Wise shares trade at 21.3 times and 15.5 times 2026 and 2027 EV to underlying adjusted EBITDA, including stock-based compensation.

Sabre - BofA kept a Buy rating on Sabre, projecting the company will materially outpace the global distribution systems (GDS) industry on air bookings by forecasting 4.3% growth in fiscal 2026 versus roughly 1.4% for the industry. The analysts point to NDC scaling and an improving mix in corporate and U.S. markets as drivers. Sabre’s ability to normalize airline data and transact reliably at scale is presented as a differentiator versus AI-native competitors. At 8 times 2026 EBITDA, the firm assesses the risk-reward profile as favorable. The price objective was lowered to $2.4 from $2.9.

Beyond the names discussed above, Bank of America also reiterated Buy ratings on Kainos and HBX Group.


Investment implications

BofA’s note frames the current pullback as an opportunity to selectively buy stocks where fundamentals, competitive positioning and valuation appear supportive. The bank’s segmentation of AI vulnerability - favoring core banking, ERP and PLM over single-point solutions - provides a framework for investors seeking exposure to more resilient enterprise software franchises while avoiding areas deemed at higher risk of AI-driven disruption.

Risks

  • Generative AI disruption remains a central concern and could disproportionately affect single-point software solutions and narrower product offerings.
  • Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty linked to conflicts in the Middle East has been cited as a contributing factor to the sector-wide selloff and could continue to weigh on investor sentiment and valuations.
  • Mixed corporate earnings momentum - with only 36% of companies beating revenue expectations and a slowdown in software growth from Q3 to Q4 - introduces execution risk for companies dependent on reaccelerating growth.

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