BNP Paribas has set a 2030 earnings objective for its asset management division that would nearly double pre-tax profit relative to a 2025 pro-forma baseline of €820 million, targeting around €1.5 billion by 2030. Management says the trajectory is based on approximately 13% compound annual growth in pre-tax income from the 2025 base.
However, market analysts pointed out the published ambition is lower than some expectations after the bank changed the divisional perimeter the evening before the targets were released. BNP Paribas removed Real Estate Services and IPS Investments from the asset management division's baseline, a restatement that alters comparability with existing consensus figures.
Applying the 13% rate to 2029 - the last year for which consensus numbers were available - produces a figure of roughly €1.3 billion in pre-tax income, versus consensus of €1.47 billion, according to Morgan Stanley. The gap reflects the fact that Real Estate Services had previously contributed roughly €200 million in pre-tax profit before being excluded, and that business is currently loss-making.
Morgan Stanley noted consensus may have been assuming at least some recovery in Real Estate Services by 2029. The brokerage has an "equal-weight" rating on BNP Paribas with a price target of €104. Shares closed at €84.88 on Monday.
The asset manager now oversees more than €1.6 trillion in assets following the integration of AXA Investment Managers. BNP Paribas said it aims for approximately €350 billion in cumulative net inflows by 2030 and is modelling asset growth of more than 5% annually on the assumption of zero percent market performance. By contrast, Morgan Stanley said it would typically assume about 3% annual market performance when modelling outcomes.
Revenue at the division is projected to grow at about a 4% compound annual rate through 2030, while operating expenses are expected to remain flat across the period. The bank is targeting a cost-to-income ratio below 60% by 2030, and a return on notional equity above 65%, compared with 48% in 2025.
BNP Paribas is targeting roughly €400 million of cost synergies and €150 million of revenue synergies by 2029. Management said these gains would come from platform convergence, fund rationalisation and operational efficiencies tied to the combined platform.
On the group's broader objectives, the asset management plan is presented as supporting BNP Paribas's ambition to reach a 13% return on tangible equity by 2028. The asset management division had previously been guided to achieve an 18% return on invested capital by 2028 and 22% by 2029, and those targets were reiterated.
Sandro Pierri, chief executive of BNP Paribas Asset Management, described the platform as "uniquely positioned to connect savers and investors with all the opportunities of the real economy."
Analyst takeaway
"The first read is rather neutral vs where consensus sits," a Morgan Stanley analyst said, reflecting the view that the restatement and modelling assumptions leave the plan broadly in line with market expectation when the perimeter change is accounted for.