Major European brewers and their investors are looking for improvement in 2026 after a challenging 2025 that saw falling volumes, weak profit growth and restructuring measures.
Heineken this week revealed plans to trim as many as 6,000 roles across a two-year period. Carlsberg warned of another difficult year for consumer spending and flagged trade war risks. Anheuser-Busch InBev reported its lowest profit growth since 2020. All three companies recorded declines in volumes over the period.
Despite those setbacks, shares in the three biggest European brewers - which together generate about $114 billion in annual sales - have risen as investors appear to anticipate a less severe year in 2026 than 2025.
AB InBev chief executive Michel Doukeris told investors on Thursday that the group expects opportunities to activate around major events, explicitly flagging the June-July soccer World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada as a potential boost. He also pointed to rapid growth in non-beer and low-alcohol products as a contributor to an improved outlook.
Doukeris added that difficult conditions in key regions such as China and Brazil - where sales had been hampered in recent months by bad weather - were easing, making 2026 look "rosier" after what he described as "a very complicated" 2025.
The 2025 slump compounded years of little or no growth in many markets. Since 2022, Heineken’s beer volumes are down 8.6%, AB InBev’s are down 6.5% and Carlsberg’s are down by more than 3%.
Analyst expectations and near-term prospects
Analysts are pencilling in a potential return to modest volume growth in 2026 on average, with consensus forecasts of 0.4% growth at AB InBev, 1.1% at Heineken and 3% at Carlsberg. Javier Gonzalez Lastra, an analyst at Berenberg, said: "Generally, I think 2026 could be a much better year in terms of volume growth," adding that 2025 "was pretty horrific" for Heineken.
Carlsberg has been pursuing an aggressive strategy to diversify away from beer, completing the $4.2 billion acquisition of soft drinks maker Britvic last year. That transaction has helped offset weaker demand for its beer portfolio.
Carlsberg chief executive Jacob Aarup-Andersen pointed to multiple potential tailwinds for 2026, including increased activity around sports, the integration of a Pepsi business in Kazakhstan and a more favourable environment in markets such as India and Vietnam. He said he expects both revenue and volume growth this year, adding: "We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic."
Investor caution
Not all investors are fully convinced a recovery is imminent. Steve Minnaar, a portfolio manager at AB InBev investor Abax Investments, warned that industry trends remain challenging despite some early signs of revival. "We’re not overly optimistic about it," he said. "I wouldn’t say (things are) more positive, but less negative."
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