Bernstein has updated its rankings of major European airport operators, identifying distinct trajectories for individual companies as the sector contends with recovering passenger traffic, sustained infrastructure investment needs and shifting tariff dynamics.
Fraport
Bernstein assigns Fraport an Outperform rating with a price target of €84.00, describing the German operator as "the turnaround story that keeps getting better." The research note underlines that Fraport's large-scale, high-cost investment programs are approaching completion and that this timing aligns with what Bernstein calls a favorable tariff agreement.
While Bernstein does not expect domestic traffic to return to pre-crisis levels before the end of the decade, the firm highlights two operational advantages: the absence of capacity constraints and recently upgraded retail space, both of which could deliver upside to operating performance.
Operational fixes at the group's Ground Handling business are now reflected in improving results, according to Bernstein. The analyst team expects the business to benefit from returning operational leverage. They also anticipate upward pressure on pricing stemming from contract renegotiations with a major customer, Lufthansa.
On the international front, Bernstein points to Fraport's portfolio of overseas assets as high quality. The note specifically cites Antalya and operations in Greece as significant contributors to profitability, and concludes that the company's recovery and value creation story is still in the early stages.
Flughafen Zurich
Bernstein rates Flughafen Zurich Market-Perform with a CHF255.00 price target, characterizing the Swiss operator as a "victim of its own success." The firm estimates that domestic assets account for more than 80% of the group's implied enterprise value.
According to Bernstein, Zurich has outpaced allowed regulated returns over the past cycle, driven in part by substantial traffic expansion. That strong traffic contribution helped push the share price more than 50% above pre-pandemic levels.
Despite past outperformance, Bernstein warns of a negative tariff outlook for the operator. The research note also flags a material ramp-up in capital expenditures as management addresses capacity limits and aging infrastructure, which could pressure returns going forward.
Bernstein expresses further concern about the company's Noida greenfield airport project in India, noting multiple delays, significant uncertainties and what the firm describes as ambitious traffic forecasts for the development.
Bottom line
Bernstein's ranking underscores a split picture across European airport operators: some companies are positioned to benefit from the tail end of heavy capital programs and improving operations, while others face rising capex burdens and regulatory or tariff headwinds. The firm highlights specific operational and portfolio strengths at Fraport and contrasting structural and project risks at Flughafen Zurich.