Bernstein has upgraded The J.M. Smucker Company to Outperform from Market-Perform and increased its price target to $145 from $121, citing a combination of easing commodity costs for coffee and the potential influence of an activist investor on corporate strategy.
The brokerage highlighted a notable decline in green coffee prices - from north of $4 per pound in 2025 to below $3 per pound - as a key development that alleviates a significant cost pressure on Smucker's retail coffee business. Bernstein said that if these lower input costs persist, retail coffee prices could fall by mid-single-digit percentages, a steeper decline than the market consensus that currently anticipates only low single-digit reductions.
Lower raw material costs, Bernstein argued, should help restore profitability in the coffee segment. The firm now forecasts retail coffee margins reaching about 30% by the second quarter of fiscal 2027, which it notes is roughly 500 basis points higher than consensus margin projections over the next two fiscal years.
That improved margin outlook is a principal driver behind Bernstein's upward revisions to Smucker's earnings estimates. The brokerage projects company-wide operating profit to outpace consensus estimates by 10.6% in fiscal 2027 and by 8.5% in fiscal 2028.
Bernstein also pointed to the arrival of activist investor Elliott Investment Management as a meaningful governance factor that could accelerate scrutiny of productivity and capital allocation at Smucker. The analysts suggested Elliott's involvement raises the prospect of portfolio changes, including the potential sale of the Hostess business, which the firm said has underperformed since Smucker completed that acquisition in late 2023.
On the potential valuation impact, Bernstein estimated that Smucker's shares could climb by more than 30% if the company divested Hostess and the remaining operations reverted to the valuation multiple the company traded at before that purchase. The analysts noted the company has not offered any comment on possible divestment discussions.
Bernstein added that Smucker's other brands appear to be more closely aligned with prevailing consumer trends than Hostess, and that the Hostess unit has weighed on the company's valuation since the acquisition closed.
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Summary of the brokerage's view: falling green coffee costs underpin a better margin trajectory for Smucker's retail coffee business, Bernstein has raised its earnings and price target accordingly, and activist involvement could prompt portfolio adjustments that materially affect valuation.