Bernstein has moved Newmont's rating to Outperform from Market-Perform and raised its price target to $157 from $121, citing a substantially more bullish outlook for long-term gold prices.
The brokerage adjusted its gold price forecasts to $4,800 an ounce for 2026 and $6,100 an ounce for 2030. Those projections stem from a revised analytical framework that links gold prices to net demand driven by central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund flows, while also incorporating the potential effects of US rate cuts.
In Bernstein's view, the major drivers of recent gold demand have been central bank buying and ETF activity. Central bank purchases have stayed elevated since 2022 following the cutoff of Russia from the SWIFT system, according to the firm, while ETF flows have served as a swing factor that responds to changes in real interest rates.
The brokerage said its net demand model and its analysis of the timing and magnitude of rate cuts lead to broadly similar price outcomes. It pointed to central bank survey data that indicate sustained interest in increasing gold holdings, reinforcing the upward pressure in its outlook.
Bernstein cited a 2025 survey of 73 central banks in which 95% of respondents expected global gold reserves to increase over the next year, and 43% said they planned to raise their own holdings. Looking further ahead, 76% of respondents expect gold to represent a larger share of reserves over a five-year horizon, while 73% anticipate a reduced share for US dollar reserves.
Applying the firmer price assumptions to Newmont's operational outlook, Bernstein lifted its EBITDA forecast for the company by 26% to $21.9 billion. The brokerage said Newmont's shares provide clear leverage to rising gold prices under its scenario.
Bernstein also highlighted company-specific catalysts that could support the stock. These include the appointment of a new chief executive and her agenda for 2026, corporate guidance that leaves room to outperform a projected high single-digit decline in managed production, and the possibility of a more constructive relationship with Newmont's largest joint venture partner.
On valuation, Bernstein increased its multiple to 6.75 times EV to EBITDA from 6.50 times and applied the revised multiple to its 2027 EBITDA estimate.
Taken together, the brokerage's moves reflect a coordinated reassessment of gold fundamentals and Newmont's sensitivity to those fundamentals, which translated into higher earnings and a richer valuation under Bernstein's model.