Bernstein has outlined a short list of European logistics stocks to watch as the June quarter reporting season arrives, singling out firms that it believes are positioned to deliver margin expansion and improved cost efficiency amid ongoing market frictions.
The brokerage's review highlights the dual backdrop of elevated air freight yields - supported by logistical complexity in the Middle East - and generally firm container shipping rates underpinned by robust demand. In Bernstein's view, execution on integration plans and cost controls will separate stronger performers from peers.
DSV
Bernstein expects DSV to report meaningful quarter-over-quarter improvement in earnings and margins, broadly consistent with consensus EBIT estimates. The analyst sees the primary driver of the improvement as the heightened logistical complexity in the Middle East, which is supporting air yields, while sea yields are described as broadly stable.
As integration moves forward, Bernstein anticipates cost reductions to emerge. The report projects Air & Sea conversion margins are likely to exceed 40%. It also states that the margin gains should reflect more than just higher gross profit yields, with increases expected to reach at least the high 30% range even if yields remain stable quarter-over-quarter.
Within DSV, Contract Logistics is expected to remain a strong performer. The firm has also changed leadership in its Road division to accelerate cost reductions and margin improvement, replacing a legacy Schenker divisional CEO with a DSV veteran who now serves as group COO.
Overall, Bernstein reiterated a preference for DSV over its peers, noting a potential opportunity tied to a cost-driven earnings inflection if integration and efficiency measures deliver as anticipated.
Kuehne+Nagel
For Kuehne+Nagel, Bernstein positions its forecasts slightly above consensus for the third quarter. The principal source of the difference is a more constructive view on airfreight yields in light of Middle East traffic disruption. That said, the firm flags execution quality as an area requiring close monitoring as Kuehne+Nagel normalizes after recent cost reduction initiatives.
Bernstein notes that sustaining commercial momentum while operating on a lower cost base would be a positive signal for the company's outlook. It also observes that the company appears intent on showing investors how artificial intelligence can contribute to improved profitability, addressing perceptions of freight forwarding as a sector less likely to benefit from AI.
DHL
DHL released preliminary second quarter 2026 results on July 7 that exceeded quarterly EBIT by approximately €300 million, and the company consequently raised its 2026 EBIT guidance by the same amount. Full-year EBIT is now expected to exceed €6.5 billion versus a prior expectation of more than €6.2 billion, with DHL businesses driving the upgrade.
Express outperformed, coming in 34% above consensus for the second quarter. Bernstein attributes part of that upside to air cargo capacity constraints, which the firm estimates generated roughly €150 million of positive impact. Global Forwarding also delivered stronger results, likely aided by the uplift in air yields, although valuation multiples for the business are beginning to approach elevated levels relative to historical ranges.
Maersk
On June 30, Maersk raised its full-year 2026 guidance for both earnings and free cash flow. The company now expects underlying EBITDA of $8 billion to $10 billion, up from a prior range of $4.5 billion to $7 billion; underlying EBIT of $2 billion to $4 billion, up from a prior range of negative $1.5 billion to $1.0 billion; and free cash flow of at least negative $1.5 billion, an improvement from a prior expectation of at least negative $3 billion.
Maersk attributed the upgrades to strong demand that has driven freight rates higher and raised its outlook for total container trade volume. The company increased its volume growth assumption for the year from a prior 2-4% range to 4% growth.
What Bernstein sees as pivotal
Across the four companies, Bernstein's commentary emphasizes that operational execution, integration progress and cost discipline will be the key differentiators during the quarter. The firm sees the Middle East disruption as a near-term tailwind for air yields, while container market strength is supporting sea freight economics.
Investors will likely focus on whether reported margin improvements reflect durable changes in conversion margins and cost structures, or instead are driven primarily by transient yield moves tied to regional disruptions.