Bernstein has provided a fresh set of valuations for several of the largest hotel operators, producing price targets tied to a combination of valuation frameworks. The firm’s approach blends earnings-based multiples with discounted cash flow and other models to inform its outlook, relying on next-twelve-months-plus-one metrics and 2027 estimates where specified.
Analysts at Bernstein applied a consistent set of benchmarking considerations across the companies, weighing net unit growth, margin performance, the capacity to repurchase stock - measured by EPS growth relative to EBITDA growth - marginal return on capital employed and the mix of emerging market exposure versus peers. The result is a ranked list of five hotel names with specific price targets and the multiples underpinning those targets.
Top five hotel stocks by Bernstein valuation
- Marriott International Inc - Bernstein assigned a $393 price target. The firm values Marriott using an 18.0x company reported next-twelve-months-plus-one EV/EBITDA multiple and a 30.0x next-twelve-months-plus-one P/E multiple. The valuation incorporates net unit growth, margin performance, buyback ability (as reflected in EPS growth above EBITDA growth), marginal return on capital employed and emerging market mix, all benchmarked against industry peers. Marriott reported fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1,402 million, a result that exceeded analyst expectations. Following those results, a range of firms, including BofA Securities and Goldman Sachs, raised price targets for the company, citing items such as higher credit card fees and a stronger outlook.
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc - Bernstein set a $322 price target. The firm uses a 19.7x company reported next-twelve-months-plus-one EV/EBITDA multiple and a 30.8x next-twelve-months-plus-one P/E multiple in its valuation. As with the other names, the assessment factors in net unit growth, margin profile, buyback ability, marginal return on capital employed and emerging market exposure. Hilton announced fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, reporting revenue of $3.09 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.08. In response, UBS raised its price target on the company, citing an improved outlook for unit growth.
- Hyatt Hotels Corp - Bernstein placed a $186 price target on Hyatt. The firm values Hyatt at a 15.1x company reported next-twelve-months-plus-one EV/EBITDA multiple and a 39.3x next-twelve-months-plus-one P/E multiple, using the same peer-benchmarked methodology. Separately, Hyatt disclosed a board leadership transition: President and CEO Mark S. Hoplamazian will assume the role of Chairman of the Board upon the retirement of Thomas J. Pritzker.
- InterContinental Hotels Group PLC - Bernstein established a $141 price target for IHG. The valuation applies a 15.4x company reported next-twelve-months-plus-one EV/EBITDA multiple and a 21.5x next-twelve-months-plus-one P/E multiple. InterContinental Hotels Group has also announced a share buyback program with a total value of up to $950 million.
- Accor SA - For the French operator, Bernstein set a price target of 058.0 based on 2027 estimates. That target is an equal-weighted average of four methodologies: a discounted cash flow analysis, a sum-of-parts valuation, a peer comparison using 12.5x 2027 EV/EBITDA and a free cash flow yield analysis. In arriving at its final target, Bernstein applied a 5% ESG discount to reflect governance concerns.
Methodology and drivers
Bernstein’s valuations combine multiple lenses rather than relying on a single model. For most names the firm applied next-twelve-months-plus-one EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples tied to company-reported figures. Where 2027 estimates were relevant, such as for Accor, those longer-term projections were used alongside discounted cash flow and sum-of-parts analyses. Across the coverage universe Bernstein explicitly benchmarks unit growth trajectories, margin resilience, buyback capacity - as expressed through EPS versus EBITDA growth - marginal returns on capital employed and the geographic mix of growth, particularly emerging market exposure, against peer companies.
What the valuations reflect
The firm’s work produces both a price target and the pair of multiples that underpin it, allowing investors to see the relative valuation stance applied to each chain. For some companies, the immediate results and outlooks reported in recent quarters informed analyst reactions from other firms, with upgrades to price targets noted after earnings beats. For one European operator, governance considerations were explicitly reflected via an ESG-related discount to the calculated fair value.
Summary
Bernstein’s report delivers specific price targets and the multiple assumptions behind them for five major hotel companies, applying a combination of earnings multiples, discounted cash flow and peer benchmarks. The analysis emphasizes unit growth, margin strength, buyback potential, marginal return on capital and exposure to emerging markets as key comparative metrics. Company filings and recent quarter results are noted where they influenced analyst sentiment and peer reactions.
Key data points highlighted in the report
- Marriott - $393 price target; 18.0x NTMP+1 EV/EBITDA; 30.0x NTMP+1 P/E; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $1,402 million.
- Hilton - $322 price target; 19.7x NTMP+1 EV/EBITDA; 30.8x NTMP+1 P/E; Q4 revenue $3.09 billion; adjusted EPS $2.08.
- Hyatt - $186 price target; 15.1x NTMP+1 EV/EBITDA; 39.3x NTMP+1 P/E; leadership transition with Mark S. Hoplamazian to become Chairman.
- IHG - $141 price target; 15.4x NTMP+1 EV/EBITDA; 21.5x NTMP+1 P/E; announced share buyback program up to $950 million.
- Accor - 058.0 price target based on 2027 estimates; equal-weighted DCF, sum-of-parts, 12.5x 2027 EV/EBITDA peer comparison and FCF yield; 5% ESG discount for governance matters.
Implications for market participants
Investors tracking the hospitality sector can use the stated multiples and the composition of methodologies to compare which names Bernstein views as offering relative upside under its scenario set. The mix of short-term next-twelve-months-plus-one multiples and longer-term 2027 estimates provides multiple entry points for assessment depending on an investor’s time horizon.
Editors note
Valuation metrics and corporate actions cited in this piece are those reported by Bernstein and the companies mentioned in their public disclosures.