Shares of TeamViewer (ETR:TMV) slipped approximately 3% on Wednesday after Bernstein revised down its near-term earnings outlook and reduced its price target, citing an elevated risk of disruption from artificial intelligence.
Brokerage adjustments
In a client note, Bernstein lowered its adjusted EPS estimates for fiscal years 2026-27 by about 11% on average, attributing the cuts to "slowing growth prospects" and a rise in near-term disruption risks linked to AI. The firm trimmed its price target to 7.60 euros from 11 euros, while retaining a Market-Perform rating on the stock.
Analyst view on AI and competitive pressure
Analyst Richard Nguyen framed TeamViewer as an "AI Transformer" in Bernstein's taxonomy - a company whose core value can be partly replicated by AI, producing operational and margin pressure in the short term. Nguyen cautioned that while AI could ultimately deliver upside, the changeover carries "high near-term disruption risks." He added, "AI does not eliminate the need for TeamViewer’s connectivity solutions; instead, the AI risk is more likely competitive."
"While TeamViewer’s current own AI push is as much defensive as offensive, we believe that switching costs for customers are only moderate, especially for SMBs (c.70% of group revenues), raising the AI disruption risks," Nguyen wrote.
Bernstein quantified TeamViewer's profile using two internal scores: a composite automatability score of 7.0 and a defensibility score of 6.9. Those scores place the company in a quadrant the broker describes as high-automatability and mid-to-low defensibility, elevating the potential for AI-powered tools to replicate portions of the value built on top of remote connectivity.
Nguyen highlighted that AI agents and support tools powered by large language models could "replicate a significant portion of the value that sits on top of remote connectivity," narrowing differentiation at the workflow level.
Growth trajectory and margins
The note pointed to subdued top-line momentum. TeamViewer's fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of +0-3% at constant currencies suggests ongoing pressure across both its Enterprise and SMB segments into the first half of 2026, coupled with amplified FX headwinds. The company anticipates a weak first quarter of 2026, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of just +2% at the exit of FY25.
Profitability, however, is guided to remain resilient. TeamViewer expects FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin to be around 43%. Still, Nguyen warned that material acceleration in revenue "may not emerge in the near term."
Concluding his assessment, Nguyen said, "We remain on the sidelines, even though we maintain our Market-Perform rating, as we view TeamViewer as a work-in-progress."
Implications for markets and sectors
- Software and enterprise connectivity vendors may face increased investor scrutiny as AI capabilities evolve and potentially compress workflow differentiation.
- SMBs, which account for roughly 70% of TeamViewer's revenues, are a focal point for switching-cost dynamics that could accelerate competitive shifts.
- Currency movements remain a secondary headwind that can further pressure reported revenues when guidance is modest.
This update from Bernstein leaves TeamViewer at an inflection point: short-term disruption risk tied to AI and moderate switching costs are weighing on near-term growth expectations, while profitability targets suggest margins could remain intact even if revenue acceleration lags.