Stock Markets February 19, 2026

Berenberg starts coverage on 74Software, argues cash generation and deleveraging underpin double-digit upside

Analyst sees working-capital gains, margin expansion and limited near-term AI disruption as drivers of value

By Caleb Monroe
Berenberg starts coverage on 74Software, argues cash generation and deleveraging underpin double-digit upside

Berenberg has opened coverage of enterprise software firm 74Software (EPA:74SW) with a Buy rating and a 44 euro price target, implying roughly 53% upside from the last closing price. The research highlights projected free cash flow expansion driven by working capital optimisation, potential annual cost savings of 6-8 million euros, margin improvement and rapid deleveraging, while judging AI disruption risk to be limited over the near term.

Key Points

  • Berenberg initiates coverage of 74Software (EPA:74SW) with a Buy rating and a 44 euro price target, implying roughly 53% upside from the most recent closing price.
  • The bank projects operating free cash flow will grow at a 16% CAGR from 2025 to 2028, driven by working capital optimisation, with margin on operating activities rising from below 7% in fiscal 2024 to above 13% by fiscal 2028.
  • Analyst highlights include 6-8 million euros of potential annual cost savings, cross-selling opportunities between Axway and the SBS customer base, and rapid deleveraging that could enable M&A, buybacks or dividends.

Berenberg has initiated coverage of enterprise software company 74Software (EPA:74SW) with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 44 euros, a level that the bank says represents about 53% upside versus the most recent closing price. Following publication of the research note, the stock rose by more than 3% on Thursday.

The analyst report frames 74Software as a specialised enterprise software platform formed after Axway's purchase of Sopra Banking Software (SBS) in 2024. That corporate combination, the bank argues, creates a focused group positioned to extract operating efficiencies and cross-sell services across adjacent client bases.

Wolfgang Specht of Berenberg emphasises working capital optimisation as the central mechanism for improving cash generation. The note forecasts operating free cash flow growth at a compounded annual rate of 16 percent for the period 2025 through 2028. Berenberg expects this expansion in FCF to support rapid deleveraging and to free up capacity for reinvestment into the business.

The research highlights several quantifiable levers. Berenberg sets out additional cost-saving potential in the range of 6 million to 8 million euros a year. It also points to cross-selling Axway services into the existing SBS customer base as an important revenue-growth opportunity. According to the analyst, the critical integration phase of SBS has already been successfully executed, which the note suggests creates an opportunity for investors to participate in what it describes as a largely undiscovered high EBIT and FCF growth story.

On the subject of artificial intelligence, the analyst takes a measured view. Berenberg argues that 74Software's product set is focused on critical tasks that carry strong requirements for security, governance, auditing and compliance. For that reason, the note expects the adoption of agentic AI by the company's customers to be gradual and initially confined to peripheral systems, rather than causing an immediate step-change in demand.

That slower adoption pathway is viewed as beneficial because it provides time for 74Software to develop its own AI capabilities or to establish partnerships with third parties, according to the report.

Profitability upgrades are central to Berenberg's valuation case. The analyst projects that the group's operating-activity margin will rise from below 7 percent in fiscal 2024 to greater than 13 percent by fiscal 2028, and identifies that margin expansion as a primary driver of both EBIT and free cash flow growth.

As a result of stronger cash generation and higher margins, Berenberg expects net leverage to fall below 2.5 times EBITDA by the end of 2025, with the potential to decline below 1.0 times by 2027. The research notes that such deleveraging could create capacity for strategic uses of capital, including mergers and acquisitions, share buybacks or the introduction of dividends.


Implications

The research note positions 74Software as a name where unit-economics improvement and margin recovery are expected to materially enhance enterprise value over a multiyear horizon, while the bank views AI-related disruption risk as limited in the near term.

Risks

  • Pace and extent of AI adoption among 74Software customers remain uncertain - while Berenberg views disruption risk as limited in the near term, any faster-than-expected adoption of agentic AI could alter demand patterns for the company's products and services.
  • Realisation risk for targeted cost savings and cross-selling initiatives - the analyst's thesis depends on the company achieving the projected 6-8 million euros in annual savings and successfully selling Axway services into the SBS installed base.
  • Execution risk around working capital optimisation and margin recovery - the forecast of a 16% operating FCF CAGR and near-doubling of operating margins assumes effective operational execution over multiple years.

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