Barclays' proprietary tracking of "core" conventional grocery shoppers indicates a rising preference for price over premium at the start of 2026. The analysis, led by analysts Seth Sigman and Oliver Hu, points to a measurable increase in unit share for Walmart Inc. as consumers prioritize value.
The report emphasizes that with limited inflation and broadly weak consumable trends, unit volumes and store traffic have become central metrics for industry performance. Barclays' team noted that Walmart is the "biggest gainer" in the dataset, with transaction wallet share accelerating over the most recent three-month window compared with the third quarter of 2025. The analysts interpret this acceleration as evidence that Walmart's consistent investments in price are capturing a larger portion of grocery spending from core shoppers.
Lower-priced retail formats beyond Walmart are also picking up momentum. Dollar stores recorded an uptick in transaction share gains during the fourth quarter of 2025, a pattern Barclays attributes to consumers "trading down" amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Hard discounters such as Aldi maintained steady gains, aligning with longer-term shifts toward lower-cost channels.
By contrast, the specialty segment - which includes chains like Sprouts Farmers Market - showed signs of cooling momentum. While year-over-year transaction share for the specialty category remained positive, Barclays reports that the rate of growth moderated significantly. The analysts suggest this moderation reflects both difficult comparisons to a strong 2025 and rising competitive pressures within the natural and organic category.
Target Corp. is highlighted as a retailer that continues to face challenges with core traffic. Barclays' analysis indicates Target's share of the grocery wallet declined, extending trends observed in the prior quarter. The report underscores a need for Target to demonstrate improvements in the first half of 2026 as it implements changes in merchandising and labor.
Large public supermarket operators such as Kroger and Albertsons also continued to lose wallet share. Barclays notes that the pace of decline for these chains is similar to the prior quarter, and characterizes the pattern as a broad-based migration away from traditional supermarket formats toward more aggressive discounters.
The Barclays work centers on transaction-level measures - unit share, unit volumes and traffic - as leading indicators of where grocery dollars are flowing. The findings point to a market environment in which steady price investment and lower-cost formats are drawing a greater share of core grocery spending as 2026 gets underway.
Analysis context: The conclusions are drawn from Barclays' proprietary tracking of conventional grocery shoppers and focus on measured changes in transaction wallet share and unit-level metrics across retail formats.