Overview
Barclays upgraded Recordati (BIT:RECI) to an "equal weight" rating from "underweight," saying the company's risk-reward profile has improved after a year in which the stock underperformed and worries about private-equity owner CVC's exit strategy eased. The broker left its price target unchanged at €48, noting the share price now sits around that level and remains roughly 14% below the price set in CVC's February 2025 accelerated bookbuild, which was quoted at €55.70 per share.
Valuation and share-overhang considerations
Barclays highlighted that the current discount to the February 2025 placement makes another near-term share placement less likely and reduces the structural overhang that had been weighing on investor sentiment. Over the past year Recordati has lagged its SXDP pharma index peers, declining 19% while the broader sector gained 1%.
The bank pointed to a mix of investor rotation away from defensive names, recurring revisions to peak-sales guidance for the endocrine treatment Isturisa, and expectations of lower margins in 2026 as contributors to the stock's weakness. Those dynamics pushed Recordati's valuation to the lower end of its historical range and essentially in line with the SXDP multiple - a convergence Barclays describes as typically temporary given Recordati's lower-risk growth profile.
CVC ownership and implications
CVC has been a central consideration for investors since acquiring control of Recordati in 2018. Barclays noted that CVC's first formal step toward exiting its stake - the February 2025 accelerated bookbuild - now appears less likely to be followed quickly by another sale at current share levels. CVC still holds about 47% of the company, and with its implied return since acquisition now approximately in line with the SXDP, the bank believes the near-term pressure to place additional shares has diminished.
Isturisa: growth driver and cost burden
Barclays underscored that Isturisa remains Recordati's largest growth engine but also a current source of cost pressure. Management raised peak-sales expectations for the drug three times in a year, most recently to above €1.2 billion, based on plans to extend use beyond overt Cushing's syndrome. Executing that strategy, Barclays said, requires sustained investment estimated at roughly €40-50 million a year and leaves Isturisa in a "show-me" phase where outcomes will depend on commercial execution.
In updated modeling, Barclays accounted for dose titration dynamics and currency effects and trimmed its Isturisa forecasts by about 4% starting in 2027.
Pipeline and near-term estimates
The analysts also incorporated Recordati's recent global commercialization agreement with Moderna for investigational therapy mRNA-3927. Barclays added risk-adjusted pipeline sales, milestones and royalties tied to that collaboration. After these adjustments, the bank trimmed its sales and adjusted EBITDA estimates by about 1% for 2026 through 2028 but left its target valuation unchanged at 16.5 times 2027 earnings.
Investor focus ahead
Barclays said investors will be watching Isturisa's commercial trajectory closely when Recordati reports 2025 results next week. The broker added that softer U.S. flu and hospitalization trends could prompt questions about performance in cough-and-cold products, underscoring additional near-term uncertainty for sales trends.
Conclusion
Barclays concluded that the combination of reduced structural risks tied to CVC's stake, a modestly de-risked set of expectations for Isturisa following modeling updates, and the addition of the Moderna collaboration support its upgrade to equal weight while the €48 target is maintained.