Barclays moved Molten Ventures up to an "overweight" rating from "equal weight" on Wednesday, keeping its price objective at 575 pence. That target sits above Molten's closing share price of 478 pence on Feb. 16, implying a potential upside of 20.2 percent.
The bank's analysts said the upgrade follows recent share-price softness and an Investor Day presentation that demonstrated improving momentum across Molten's portfolio. "Accelerating portfolio momentum with clear potential catalysts over the next 12 months drives our confidence despite market volatility," the analysts said.
The change in stance marks a departure from Barclays' prior caution. The firm had maintained an "equal weight" view amid concerns over Molten's capital allocation and a disconnect between portfolio-level returns and net asset value performance, concerns that Barclays pointed to a 2023 capital raise as illustrating.
According to Barclays, Molten has begun to show progress on those issues. The bank cites interim results for the reporting period to September 2025 that indicate a recovery in valuations driven by ICEYE, Revolut, Aircall and Ledger, which Barclays says together make up about 30 percent of Molten's NAV.
Revolut is singled out as a particularly meaningful holding, representing 12 percent of NAV. Molten's carrying value for Revolut at March 2025 matched a $45 billion valuation observed in a secondary share sale. Barclays' calculations suggest the September 2025 carrying value is roughly equivalent to a $53 billion valuation.
Following Revolut's more recent fundraising and secondary transaction at a $75 billion valuation, Barclays estimates the direct impact on Molten's NAV would be about 3.5 percent. That figure is after accounting for a carried interest accrual of 15 percent and corporation tax on capital gains, and it is partially offset by tax structuring.
ICEYE, which Barclays says represents 6 percent of NAV, completed a 150 million funding round at a 2.4 billion valuation in the fourth quarter. ICEYE also secured a 1.7 billion contract through its joint venture with Rheinmetall to provide space-based reconnaissance capabilities for the German Armed Forces, with work running from end-2025 to end-2030.
During the ICEYE round Molten realised a317.5 million through a 50 million secondary placement; Molten's remaining holding was valued at a385 million based on the funding valuation. Barclays says that combination implies a NAV uplift of 1.9 percent after carried interest, and a multiple on invested capital of 4.6x.
Barclays also highlights a valuation divergence with peer investor Seraphim, which carried ICEYE at substantially higher levels. Seraphim's Dec. 31 valuation implies a 78.1 percent uplift from Molten's September carrying value and would correspond to a potential NAV uplift of 3.8 percent if reflected in Molten's books.
Aircall, another holding representing about 6 percent of NAV, reported annual recurring revenue exceeding $200 million, up 26 percent year-over-year. Barclays notes Aircall's AI-related products now account for over 10 percent of total ARR after 15x growth in 2025.
Operationally, Molten has realised more than a3100 million year-to-date, which Barclays says has helped to reduce net debt to approximately 3 percent of NAV.
On the valuation front, Barclays trimmed its FY26 NAV projection by 2 percent to reflect weaker listed comparables and foreign exchange movements. The bank points out that listed comparables are down a weighted-average 15.3 percent since September 2025.
Barclays' 575 pence price target is based on an assumed 30 percent discount to NAV. The bank lays out scenario sensitivities: an upside case that assumes a 20 percent portfolio return and no discount to NAV, implying an 855 pence valuation, and a downside case of 220 pence that assumes a 40 percent discount to NAV and a 20 percent portfolio decline.
Contextual takeaways
- Barclays' upgrade reflects improving valuation trends among a cluster of Molten's largest holdings rather than a change to the bank's price target.
- The estimated NAV impact from recent secondary transactions incorporates carried interest and corporate tax considerations, reducing gross valuation effects.
- Market comparables and currency moves remain factors prompting a modest downward revision to Barclays' near-term NAV forecast.