Stock Markets February 23, 2026

Bank of America Sees Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs as Clear Tailwind for Parts of SMID E-commerce, Names Etsy as Top Beneficiary

Analyst says geographic diversification and domestic sales mix make Etsy well positioned, while EBAY may also benefit and Wayfair, Chewy see muted impacts

By Nina Shah ETSY EBAY W CHWY
Bank of America Sees Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs as Clear Tailwind for Parts of SMID E-commerce, Names Etsy as Top Beneficiary
ETSY EBAY W CHWY

Bank of America analysts say the Supreme Court's decision to invalidate the IEEPA-based tariffs has delivered a notable positive shock to portions of the small- and mid-cap e-commerce universe. Shares in the group rallied after the ruling but pared gains when a new global tariff under Section 122 was announced. Within the sector, Etsy is singled out as the most likely beneficiary because of its broad geographic footprint and balance between domestic and international sales.

Key Points

  • Bank of America says the Supreme Court's decision to strike down IEEPA-based tariffs creates a material tailwind for parts of the small- and mid-cap e-commerce sector.
  • Etsy is highlighted as the likely largest beneficiary due to its roughly 50% domestic gross merchandise sales and wide geographic diversification across trade routes and sourcing countries.
  • EBAY could be the next-largest beneficiary, while Wayfair and Chewy are expected to face more muted effects because of their tariff exposure and supply-chain diversification.

Bank of America analysts view the recent Supreme Court decision striking down tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as providing a meaningful tailwind for selected small- and mid-cap e-commerce names.

In a research note, analyst Michael McGovern observed that stocks across the SMID e-commerce cohort moved higher immediately following the court ruling. However, those advances eased once the administration introduced a new global tariff measure under Section 122.

BofA flagged the mixed policy backdrop as a source of differentiation across the sector, writing that the ruling will produce "winners and losers in SMID eComm." Within that framework, the firm identified Etsy as a standout candidate to capture upside from the decision.

McGovern noted that "Etsy is able to manage tariff volatility efficiently due to its diversification across trade routes and countries," and provided detail on the company’s sales mix to support that view. Roughly half of Etsy's gross merchandise sales are domestic, while the other half is divided among U.S. imports, exports and international-only transactions. No single import country supplies more than 4% of Etsy's sales, and the platform's top sourcing markets - including the U.K., Canada, Türkiye, India and Ukraine - account for only half of its import exposure.

According to BofA, that wide geographic dispersion functions as a practical "replacement factor". When tariffs push up costs in a particular market, sellers on Etsy can adjust by shifting sourcing or routing without facing major operational disruption, the bank argues.

The note also emphasized that Etsy’s management appears more focused on ensuring that tariff and customs frameworks "fit microbusiness specific realities" than on which legal authority the administration employs to set tariffs.

Among peers, BofA believes EBAY could be the next-largest beneficiary of the IEEPA ruling. By contrast, Wayfair and Chewy are viewed as likely to experience more muted effects because of their existing tariff structures and diversified supply chains.

Separately, the research commentary highlighted the immediate market reaction to the court decision and the subsequent tempering of gains after the announcement of the Section 122 tariff, illustrating how policy shifts can quickly re-weight investor expectations across the SMID e-commerce segment.


Related note on investor tools

The research bulletin also included a reference to an AI-driven stock screening product that evaluates companies such as EBAY across multiple financial metrics to generate investment ideas. That commentary described the tool's process-oriented approach to assessing fundamentals, momentum and valuation, while noting examples of previously highlighted winners.

Risks

  • Policy volatility - The benefit to SMID e-commerce names was reduced when a new global tariff under Section 122 was announced, showing that subsequent policy actions can narrow initial market gains.
  • Concentration risk in trade routes - Although Etsy’s import exposure is broadly distributed, tariff changes in specific markets could still raise costs for sellers and affect competitiveness in impacted regions.
  • Peer divergence - Not all e-commerce companies will be equally affected; firms with different tariff structures or supply-chain footprints, such as Wayfair and Chewy, may see only limited upside.

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