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Stock Markets February 12, 2026

Bank of America Sees Limited Apple EPS Risk From Memory Price Surge, Larger Hits for PC Peers

BofA modeling points to modest impact for Apple while Dell and HP face bigger earnings pressure as NAND and DRAM costs jump in C26

By Leila Farooq AAPL DELL HPQ
Bank of America Sees Limited Apple EPS Risk From Memory Price Surge, Larger Hits for PC Peers
AAPL DELL HPQ

Bank of America applied its elasticity framework to forecast how sharply higher memory prices in 2026 could affect major PC makers. The bank finds Apple positioned to absorb most of the headwind with a small potential EPS hit, while Dell and HP would incur materially larger theoretical losses unless they take cost and specification actions.

Key Points

  • BofA model applies elasticity cohorts to Apple, Dell and HP to assess impact of higher memory prices projected for C26.
  • Projected price moves are NAND +140% in C26 and DRAM +14% in C26, prompting OEMs to consider price increases, reconfigurations, and supply-chain pressure to offset costs.
  • Modeled EPS downside: Apple $0.12, Dell $3.77, HP $1.55; BofA expects the full theoretical impact may be cushioned by long-term contract pricing.

Bank of America examined the potential earnings fallout for major PC original equipment manufacturers from a projected surge in memory costs and concluded that Apple is comparatively insulated against the headwind, although some downside remains.

Analyst Wamsi Mohan told clients that BofA used its existing elasticity framework to model how Apple, Dell and HP could respond to sharply higher component prices expected in 2026. The bank's modeling incorporated projected moves in NAND and DRAM pricing and divided each OEM's shipments into cohorts based on demand elasticity.

According to the note, NAND prices are projected to rise +140% in C26 and DRAM +14% in C26, a combination that would force PC makers to pursue a mix of price increases, product reconfigurations, and supply-chain adjustments to counter the cost pressure.

BofA found Apple best placed to withstand memory inflation because its units are least sensitive to price changes - about 85% of Apple units fall in the inelastic cohort. Based on the bank's modeling, Apple faces a potential earnings impact of $0.12 per share. By contrast, Dell's theoretical impact is $3.77 and HP's is $1.55 per share.

Mohan noted that the full theoretical impact is unlikely to fully materialize because memory pricing in long-term contracts is likely to be lower than spot projections. "The implied downside to EPS is modest for AAPL," he wrote, and the bank retains its Buy rating on Apple because of optionality from new products, new markets and eventual success with AI at the edge.

Even so, BofA warned that Apple could see more than 600 basis points of year-over-year operating margin deleverage, though margins would remain positive given the company's stronger profitability. For Dell and HP, the bank said maintaining profitability in the face of the projected memory-price shock would likely require cutting operating expenses by 5-20% and reducing product specifications.

On the demand side, the bank now expects 2026 PC units to decline 8% year over year, a notable revision from its prior view of flat growth for the year.

Impacted sectors: PC hardware manufacturers, semiconductor memory suppliers, and technology supply chains.

Risks

  • Memory price volatility - NAND and DRAM projections could materially pressure PC OEM margins and earnings, affecting hardware makers and component suppliers.
  • Demand weakness - BofA now forecasts 2026 PC units falling 8% year over year, increasing revenue risk for OEMs and related supply chains.
  • Operational responses - Dell and HP may need to cut operating expenses by 5-20% and reduce specifications to remain profitable, which could affect product competitiveness and supplier relationships.

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