Stock Markets February 11, 2026

Banco do Brasil Forecasts Return to Stronger Profits in 2026

State-run lender posts stronger Q4 and sets 2026 adjusted net profit target of 22-26 billion reais

By Nina Shah
Banco do Brasil Forecasts Return to Stronger Profits in 2026

Banco do Brasil reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issued guidance that its adjusted net profit could rise to between 22 billion and 26 billion reais in 2026, signalling a potential rebound after a 45% decline in 2025. Management highlighted ongoing focus on risk mitigation and profitability while setting targets for credit growth and cost of credit.

Key Points

  • Banco do Brasil forecasts adjusted net profit of 22-26 billion reais for 2026, with a midpoint of 24 billion reais.
  • Q4 adjusted net profit was 5.74 billion reais, about 40% higher year-on-year and above analyst expectations of 4.55 billion reais; return on equity was 12.4%.
  • The bank projects credit portfolio growth of 0.5%-4.5% in 2026 and expects cost of credit to be 53-58 billion reais versus around 62 billion reais last year.

Banco do Brasil, the state-controlled Brazilian bank, on Wednesday outlined projections that its adjusted net profit may expand by as much as 26% in 2026, after releasing fourth-quarter results that beat analyst expectations.

The lender estimated 2026 adjusted net profit to land in a range of 22 billion to 26 billion reais, which converts to roughly $4.3 billion to $5 billion at the quoted exchange rate. That would represent a material recovery from 2025, when adjusted net profit fell 45% to 20.7 billion reais. The midpoint of the bank's guidance is 24 billion reais - close to the 24.39 billion reais consensus from analysts polled by LSEG.

"We are optimistic about 2026," Banco do Brasil President Tarciana Medeiros said in a statement, adding that the institution continues to concentrate on risk mitigation and profitability.

For the fourth quarter of last year, Banco do Brasil reported an adjusted net profit of 5.74 billion reais, an increase of about 40% year-on-year and above the 4.55 billion reais analysts had expected. The bank's return on equity for the period stood at 12.4%, down from 20.8% a year earlier but improved from the 8.4% posted in the third quarter.

Looking to 2026, the lender provided additional operating guidance. It forecasts growth in its credit portfolio of between 0.5% and 4.5% for the year, following a 3.1% increase in 2025. Cost of credit is projected to be between 53 billion reais and 58 billion reais, compared with around 62 billion reais recorded in the prior year.

In a separate regulatory filing, Banco do Brasil said it would pay roughly 1.2 billion reais in interest on equity to shareholders. The bank also supplied the exchange rate used in the release: $1 equals 5.1815 reais.


These results and forward-looking ranges provide investors with clear numerical targets for profitability, credit expansion and credit costs. Management emphasised mitigation of credit and operational risks as part of its strategy to lift returns in the coming year.

Risks

  • Profitability remains below the prior-year level - return on equity eased to 12.4% from 20.8% a year earlier, indicating continued pressure on returns that could affect investor sentiment - impacts banking and financial markets.
  • Credit cost forecasts carry uncertainty - while the bank expects 53-58 billion reais in cost of credit, this remains a material expense compared with around 62 billion reais last year, affecting credit risk provisioning and lender margins - impacts credit markets and bank balance sheets.
  • Modest credit growth guidance - the projected 0.5%-4.5% expansion in the credit portfolio for 2026 leaves outcomes sensitive to demand and underwriting outcomes, which could influence net interest income and asset quality - impacts lending markets and interest-rate sensitive sectors.

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