Stock Markets March 17, 2026

Baird: Used-vehicle retail prices decline as loan rates ease

February sees lower used-car retail prices and softer financing costs amid mixed wholesale and retail indicators

By Nina Shah KMX CVNA
Baird: Used-vehicle retail prices decline as loan rates ease
KMX CVNA

Used-vehicle retail prices fell 3% year-over-year in February, while interest rates on used auto loans were roughly 60-70 basis points below year-ago levels, Baird reports. Preliminary retail unit sales data showed a 6% rise, though revisions could temper that gain. Wholesale values tracked by Manheim rose 4% year-over-year. CarMax and Carvana reported average selling prices for their most recent quarters, with CarMax showing a modest uptick in price and monthly payment.

Key Points

  • Used-vehicle retail prices fell 3% year-over-year in February, per the used car CPI index.
  • Interest rates on used automobile loans were about 60-70 basis points lower than a year ago; 48-month loan rates were flat to slightly lower month-to-month in February.
  • Wholesale values rose 4% year-over-year in February (Manheim Used Vehicle Value index), while preliminary vAuto retail unit sales showed a 6% increase but may be revised toward flat or low single-digit growth.

Used-vehicle retail prices decreased 3% year-over-year in February, according to the used car CPI index cited by Baird. The brokerage also noted that interest rates on used automobile loans were approximately 60-70 basis points lower than in the same period a year earlier.

Preliminary figures from vAuto pointed to a 6% increase in used-vehicle retail unit sales in February. Baird cautions, however, that vAuto’s series has a pattern of historical revisions; the firm said the final tally could end up closer to flat or only up in the low single digits once revisions are incorporated.

Wholesale values showed a different dynamic. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value index, which adjusts wholesale prices for mix, mileage and seasonality, rose 4% year-over-year in February, indicating strength on the auction side even as retail prices softened.

On financing, Bankrate data indicate that interest rates on 48-month used-car loans were flat to slightly lower in February versus January, and remained about 60-70 basis points below last year’s levels. Baird highlighted the year-over-year decline in used-auto loan rates as a notable development in the consumer-finance backdrop.

Among major retailers, CarMax reported an average selling price of $26,383 in its November 2025 quarter, up $114 from $26,153 in the November 2024 quarter. The company’s typical monthly payment in the November 2025 quarter was $516, compared with $514 in the same period a year earlier; Baird noted that those payments remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels of around $375 per month. CarMax is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings in April, and Baird said it sees upside to the -5% consensus comparable-sales estimate for the quarter.

Carvana reported an average selling price of $25,416 in its December 2025 quarter. The company does not disclose the average interest rate paid by its buyers.


These data points collectively show a market in which retail prices have softened while wholesale values remain positive and financing costs for used vehicles have eased compared with the prior year. Observers will be watching upcoming quarterly results and subsequent data revisions for clarity on retail demand and margins in the used-vehicle channel.

Risks

  • Preliminary vAuto retail unit sales are subject to revision and could be revised down toward flat or low single-digit growth, creating uncertainty for retail demand estimates.
  • Carvana does not disclose the average interest rate paid by its customers, leaving a gap in assessing consumer finance costs for a significant online retailer.
  • Consensus comparable-sales estimates for CarMax include a -5% figure that Baird expects upside to, but quarter-to-quarter variability in vehicle prices, mix and financing could affect realized results.

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