Baird has started coverage of Affirm with a Neutral recommendation and set a $55 price objective, pointing to solid growth prospects for buy now, pay later products while underscoring macro and credit-related vulnerabilities.
In its report, Baird described Affirm as the largest BNPL provider in the United States and the second-largest globally. The firm noted that BNPL presently represents roughly 1% of U.S. electronic payments, a share that suggests room for market penetration and expansion.
Baird expects the BNPL industry to expand at an annualized rate above 20% in the coming years.
On Affirm’s revenue mix, Baird outlined that approximately 35% of the company’s revenue comes from merchant fees. Merchants pay Affirm between 2% and 8% of transaction value, which averages out to about 3.5% of transaction value in the firm’s view. Interest income represents roughly half of Affirm’s revenue, with interest-bearing loans carrying consumer rates in the neighborhood of 25% to 30% APR. The balance of revenue is derived from gains on loan sales and servicing fees.
Operational metrics cited by Baird show merchant partners increased 24% to 377,000 in fiscal 2025, while active consumers rose 23% to 23 million. Repeat customers account for about 95% of transactions, a dynamic Baird says supports network effects: merchants pay for access to Affirm’s consumer base, and shoppers are attracted to fixed payment structures that avoid late fees and compounding interest.
The firm highlighted several potential levers for future growth, including international expansion, broader adoption of Affirm’s debit card, and increased usage in physical retail locations. Baird also pointed to strong incremental margins, noting that recent top-line growth has translated into elevated contribution margins for the business.
Despite these positives, Baird emphasized credit risk as a material concern. Affirm’s customer base skews toward low- and middle-income borrowers, and average order values of approximately $250 to $300 exceed typical credit card transaction sizes. That profile, the firm warned, means a pullback in discretionary spending or increased delinquency rates could exert pressure on results.
Baird’s Neutral rating reflects a valuation level near 40 times 2026 earnings estimates and the company’s sensitivity to shifts in retail demand and bad-debt trends.
Bottom line - Baird sees clear expansion potential for Affirm’s BNPL offerings and positive unit economics, but assigns a Neutral rating because credit risk and retail-demand sensitivity could weigh on performance despite the company’s scale and recent growth.