Stock Markets March 4, 2026

Asia Markets Recover as KOSPI Rockets More Than 10%; Tensions Between U.S. and Iran Keep Risk Appetite Fragile

A wave of bargain buying lifts regional equities, led by chip and auto stocks in South Korea, while Beijing sets a softer growth goal and promises stimulus

By Sofia Navarro
Asia Markets Recover as KOSPI Rockets More Than 10%; Tensions Between U.S. and Iran Keep Risk Appetite Fragile

Asian equities staged a sharp rebound on Thursday, with South Korea’s KOSPI posting its strongest recovery after two volatile sessions as investors bought dips in technology and auto names. The rally came despite ongoing uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran conflict and a rise in oil that kept markets cautious. China’s markets advanced after Beijing announced a slightly lower 2026 GDP target accompanied by commitments to fiscal support.

Key Points

  • South Korea’s KOSPI rebounded strongly, recovering as much as 12% after two days of steep losses, led by substantial gains in chip and auto stocks.
  • China set a 2026 GDP target of 4.5% to 5% and pledged fiscal and industrial support, while also targeting a 2% CPI and a budget deficit equal to 4% of GDP.
  • Wider Asian markets mostly recovered, with notable gains in Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, India and modest rise in Australia, though mining stocks in Australia weighed on the ASX 200.

Asian equity markets moved higher on Thursday as bargain hunting and positive cues from U.S. trading helped lift regional indices that had suffered heavy losses earlier in the week. Despite the rally, investors remained wary amid lingering tensions between the U.S. and Iran and renewed pressure on energy prices.

Wall Street provided an initial lift to the region after technology stocks staged gains that supported a broader recovery from sharp declines experienced earlier in the week. Economic data from the U.S. also contributed to an improved tone for risk assets. That said, S&P 500 futures traded 0.2% lower by 22:20 ET (03:20 GMT), reflecting persistent uncertainty after conflicting reports emerged over whether Iran had approached the U.S. about ending hostilities. At the same time, a sustained uptick in oil left markets sensitive to potential economic consequences tied to the conflict.


KOSPI posts outsized bounce on chip and auto stock recovery

South Korea’s KOSPI led gains across Asia, recovering as much as 12% after two days of steep declines. The rebound was driven by heavy dip-buying interest, particularly in semiconductor and automotive names that had powered the index’s recent run to record highs.

Major South Korean constituents Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (KS:005930), SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660), and Hyundai Motor (KS:005380) each rallied between 11% and 13%, clawing back portions of their earlier losses. Those moves followed a sharp sell-off in the prior sessions, which market participants said was prompted by a marked deterioration in risk sentiment after the outbreak of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, triggering liquidations of long positions.

Local equities had also been exposed to profit-taking pressures after strong year-to-date gains, with the market having climbed as much as 50% so far in 2026 prior to the recent sell-off.


Chinese markets gain after Beijing sets a softer 2026 growth target and pledges stimulus

Chinese shares advanced on the session, with the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rising 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1%.

Beijing announced a 2026 gross domestic product target of 4.5% to 5%, modestly below the roughly 5% growth achieved over the past three years and described as the weakest annual goal since 1991. In his government work report delivered at the opening of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Qiang also detailed a 2026 consumer price index goal of 2% and set a fiscal budget deficit at 4% of GDP.

Li pledged increased government investment across a range of new technologies and industrial sectors and said authorities would take steps to further support consumer spending. The government also outlined plans to raise military expenditure by 7%.

Analysts at ING characterized the economic targets as unsurprising, noting Beijing’s focus on supporting weak domestic consumption that has been a drag on growth in recent years.


Wider Asian market moves

Beyond Korea and China, broader Asian markets were mostly higher as they regained a portion of the heavy losses recorded earlier in the week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX climbed 1.5% and 1.8% respectively, with domestic bank stocks bouncing in step with an overnight rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

Singapore’s Straits Times rose 0.7% and India’s Nifty 50 added 0.4% in morning trade. Australia’s ASX 200 increased 0.3%, although its upside was constrained by declines in major mining names including BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO), both of which traded ex-dividend.


Market context and outlook

The regional rally underscores two concurrent forces shaping investor behavior: opportunistic buying after steep near-term losses, and an underlying reluctance to fully commit given geopolitical developments and energy price dynamics. While equities across several markets posted notable intraday recoveries, futures and commodity trends highlighted how sensitive sentiment remains to developments tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Market participants will likely continue to monitor newsflow on the conflict and oil movements closely, alongside domestic policy signals such as Beijing’s fiscal and industrial commitments that could influence local economic momentum and risk appetite.

Risks

  • Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities are creating persistent geopolitical risk that is weighing on investor risk appetite and could affect energy prices and economic sentiment.
  • A sustained rise in oil could have broader economic consequences and keep markets on edge, influencing sectors sensitive to energy costs such as manufacturing and transport.
  • Profit-taking vulnerability in markets that have already posted large YTD gains (for example, South Korea, up as much as 50% in 2026) may amplify volatility if risk sentiment deteriorates.

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