Aryzta AG reported full-year 2025 results on Monday, registering organic sales growth of 1.5% and an overall EBITDA margin of 13.8%, a contraction versus the prior year. Management set guidance for 2026 that anticipates low to mid-single digit organic sales growth and a year-on-year increase in EBITDA.
The groups full-year organic sales rate of 1.5% came in just below broker and market estimates - UBS had forecast 1.6% while consensus was 1.7%. Aryzta recorded EBITDA of 2 307 million for the year, down 4% on the previous period and reported as matching both UBS and consensus estimates at 2 306 million. Earnings per share rose 6% year-on-year, a move the company attributed in part to lower financing costs.
Performance in the fourth quarter showed a modest contraction: organic sales fell 0.3% year-on-year. The company said volume and mix were down 1.2% while pricing improved by 0.9%. Regional trends diverged, with Europe weakening by 1.1% and the rest of the world segment expanding by 5.8%, the latter supported by Aryztas quick service restaurant business.
Profitability metrics weakened through the year. The second half of 2025 saw an EBITDA margin decline of 130 basis points year-on-year to 13.8%, while the full-year margin was down 80 basis points. Cost pressures were evident: raw material costs rose by 200 basis points as a percentage of sales to 48%, a level the company described as broadly in line with historical averages. Personnel costs increased by 100 basis points to 21% of sales, which Aryzta attributed to wage inflation. Management noted those cost increases were partially offset by pricing actions, which improved margins by 100 basis points year-on-year for 2025, and by internal cost initiatives.
On cash generation, Aryzta reported equity free cash flow of 20 million for the year, equivalent to roughly an 8% yield to the firm's market capitalisation, a figure that includes a negative 8 million contribution from securitisation.
Looking ahead to 2026, the company reiterated guidance for low to mid-single digit organic sales growth and year-on-year EBITDA growth. Market consensus currently anticipates 2.0% organic sales growth and EBITDA of 317 million, representing about 3% growth versus 2025. Aryzta also signalled expectations for sustained strong cash generation and confirmed an intention to repurchase its last hybrid bond at its next due date.
On corporate leadership, Urs Jordi will transition to permanent chief executive officer. The board plans to propose a new chairperson at the 2027 annual general meeting.
Key points
- Full-year organic sales rose 1.5%, narrowly below UBS and consensus estimates.
- EBITDA margin softened to 13.8%, with second-half margin down 130 basis points year-on-year.
- Company guides to low to mid-single digit organic sales growth and higher EBITDA in 2026; plans to repurchase remaining hybrid bond.
Risks and uncertainties
- Rising raw material input costs - raw material costs increased by 200 basis points to 48% of sales - which could continue to pressure gross margins and affect the food manufacturing sector.
- Wage inflation - personnel costs rose 100 basis points to 21% of sales, presenting an ongoing risk to operating margins in labor-intensive operations.
- Regional sales variability - Europe showed a 1.1% sales decline in Q4 while the rest of world rose 5.8%, suggesting geographic concentration risks for revenue performance.