Stock Markets February 17, 2026

APi Group issues 2026 guidance in line with estimates; shares modestly lower

Company forecasts mid-2026 revenue of $8.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA near $1.17 billion as 2025 expected to exceed earlier targets

By Priya Menon APG
APi Group issues 2026 guidance in line with estimates; shares modestly lower
APG

APi Group provided initial financial targets for 2026 that closely match Wall Street estimates, while signaling stronger-than-expected performance for 2025. The company’s guidance includes revenue of $8.40 billion to $8.60 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.14 billion to $1.20 billion. Shares were modestly down in line with the broader market.

Key Points

  • APi issued 2026 revenue guidance of $8.40 billion to $8.60 billion, in line with $8.47 billion consensus - Markets (S&P 500) impacted.
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.14 billion to $1.20 billion compares with $1.18 billion consensus; midpoint implies a 13.8% margin - Corporate earnings and valuation metrics affected.
  • Company expects 2025 results to be comfortably above the midpoint of prior guidance, with margins above 13% and adjusted free cash flow conversion near an 80% target - Cash flow and leverage dynamics relevant to creditors and equity investors.

APi Group Corporation (NYSE:APG) provided investors with preliminary targets for 2026 and an update on 2025, and the stock moved slightly lower in morning trading as the broader market slipped.

Shares of APG were down about 0.6%, matching a 0.6% decline in the S&P 500, after the company set revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges for the coming year that largely mirror consensus forecasts.


2026 guidance in detail

For fiscal 2026, APi Group issued revenue guidance between $8.40 billion and $8.60 billion. That range compares with analysts' expectations of $8.47 billion. The company also projected adjusted EBITDA for 2026 of $1.14 billion to $1.20 billion, versus a consensus estimate of $1.18 billion.

At the midpoint of its adjusted EBITDA range, APi expects margins to reach 13.8% for 2026. Management highlighted expectations for strong organic growth across both service and project revenue streams during the year.


Update on 2025 results

APi told investors it now expects 2025 results to finish "comfortably above the midpoint" of guidance previously issued for that year. Earlier guidance for 2025 specified net revenues of $7.83 billion to $7.93 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.02 billion to $1.05 billion.

Company leadership said it anticipates adjusted EBITDA margins for 2025 will exceed its 13% target, and that adjusted free cash flow conversion will be in line with the firm's 80% target. APi also expects to finish 2025 with a net leverage ratio that is "significantly below 2.0x."


Next steps and investor access

Management will provide additional detail on the company’s 2025 performance and the 2026 outlook on an upcoming earnings call scheduled for February 25, 2026.

This preliminary guidance and the accompanying update leave APi aligned with market expectations for the coming year while indicating better-than-anticipated execution in 2025, according to the company’s statements.

Risks

  • Guidance and targets may not materialize as stated; the company’s outlook is contingent on achieving projected organic growth in service and project revenues - impacts corporate earnings and market expectations.
  • Targets for adjusted EBITDA margins, adjusted free cash flow conversion (80% target), and a net leverage ratio significantly below 2.0x are performance-sensitive; failure to meet these metrics would affect leverage and liquidity profiles - relevant to fixed income and equity holders.
  • Near-term market reaction may reflect broader market moves as well as company-specific execution; the stock’s modest decline occurred alongside a similar S&P 500 drop, indicating sensitivity to both macro and company information - affects sector and index performance.

More from Stock Markets

Market Turbulence Reinforces Case for Broader Diversification Feb 21, 2026 NYSE Holdings UK Ltd launches unified trading platform to streamline market access Feb 21, 2026 Earnings Drive Weekly Winners and Losers as Buyout Headlines Lift Masimo Feb 21, 2026 Barclays Sees 'Physical AI' Scaling to Hundreds of Billions by 2035 Feb 21, 2026 Germany's Wind Expansion Accelerates Amid Growing Questions Over Durability Feb 21, 2026