Antin Infrastructure Partners S.A. reported full-year adjusted EBITDA for 2025 that came in about 4% ahead of analyst expectations, the firm said on Thursday. The outperformance was supported by slightly stronger top-line receipts and lower-than-expected operating costs.
At year-end, Antin's fee-paying assets under management totaled €22.0 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year and modestly above the consensus forecast of €21.8 billion. Gross inflows for the year reached €0.6 billion, reflecting fresh capital allocated to execute value-creation initiatives across multiple vehicles, including Flagship III, III-B and IV.
Total revenues were reported at €293 million, roughly 1% ahead of expectations, while management fees were essentially in line with estimates at €290 million. Management fee margin rose by one basis point to 134 basis points, up from 133 basis points in 2024. Carried interest and investment income together amounted to €3 million for the period.
On the cost side, adjusted operating expenses were 3% below consensus at €131 million. Within that total, personnel expenses were €98 million and other operating expenses €32 million. The combination of revenue and expense dynamics produced an underlying EBITDA of €162 million, versus a consensus figure of €156 million, implying an underlying margin of 55%.
Adjusted net income for the year was €111 million, with adjusted earnings per share of €0.62. The company declared a dividend per share of €0.71.
Investment activity accelerated in the back half of 2025. Total twelve-month investments were €2.5 billion by the fourth quarter of 2025, up from €1.0 billion in the third quarter. Antin completed six transactions in the second half of the year: Emsere, Aquavista and Swiftair within Mid Cap I; Matawan in NextGen I; and NorthC and Vigor Marine in Flagship V.
By year-end, Mid Cap I was approximately 72% committed, NextGen I about 62% committed, and Flagship V about 53% committed. Flagship V carries a deployment covenant that requires it to reach 75% deployment by August 2027 to continue accruing management fees.
Deployment activity extended into the first quarter of 2026 with Antin's acquisition of Belambra into Mid Cap I. That transaction brought Mid Cap I to 75% deployed, which cleared the way for Antin to move forward with the launch of Mid Cap II, expected in the second quarter of 2026.
Exit activity over the prior twelve months was limited; the only realized exit reported was the full sale of PearlX from NextGen I in December 2025. The firm said several sale processes are either launched or expected to begin shortly.
On fund-level performance, Fund III's gross multiple on invested capital slipped from 2.0x to 1.9x in the quarter, while Mid Cap I's multiple rose from 1.4x to 1.5x. Fund IV, Fund III-B, Fund V and Fund I showed no material change quarter-over-quarter.
Looking ahead, Antin expects underlying EBITDA to be broadly stable through 2026. Management signaled that a meaningful uplift in earnings is anticipated in 2027, a projection tied to higher management fee income as Mid Cap II scales and Flagship VI is launched.
Summary
Antin delivered a small earnings beat for 2025 driven by cost control and modest revenue gains, and has accelerated deployment across its strategies into late 2025 and early 2026. Mid Cap I's move to 75% deployment following the Belambra deal enables a Mid Cap II fundraising in Q2 2026, and management forecasts a material earnings increase in 2027 as these new funds contribute additional fees.
Key points
- Adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2025 exceeded consensus by 4%, driven by lower operating expenses and slightly higher revenues - impacts financial services and asset management sectors.
- Fee-paying assets under management increased to €22.0 billion, with gross inflows of €0.6 billion focused on value-creation investments across Flagship III, III-B and IV - impacts infrastructure investment and private equity markets.
- Mid Cap I reached 75% deployment after the Belambra acquisition, enabling the planned launch of Mid Cap II in Q2 2026; management expects a significant earnings uplift in 2027 as new funds scale - impacts fundraising and fee revenue trajectories.
Risks and uncertainties
- Exit activity has been limited, with only one signed realization in the past twelve months (PearlX), which could constrain near-term crystallization of investment returns - affects private infrastructure fund liquidity and realization timelines.
- Flagship V must reach 75% deployment by August 2027 to continue accruing management fees; failure to meet that covenant would have implications for fee income - impacts fee recognition and fund economics.
- Underlying EBITDA is expected to be broadly stable in 2026, meaning the projected meaningful earnings increase depends on successful fundraising and deployment of Mid Cap II and launch of Flagship VI - relevant to revenue and expense planning in asset management.