Overview
Two major Wall Street firms opened coverage on York Space Systems with markedly different assessments of the company’s near-term risk and long-term opportunity. JPMorgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $39 price target, pointing to York’s position as a low-cost manufacturer of low Earth orbit satellites for U.S. defense customers and potential demand from missile defense initiatives. Goldman Sachs started coverage at Neutral with a $29 price target, acknowledging York’s cost and speed advantages but warning of operational and financial uncertainties.
JPMorgan thesis
JPMorgan emphasized York’s role as a leading supplier to the Space Development Agency, noting the company has delivered spacecraft at a pace and price point that JPMorgan says are materially better than competitors. The bank reported York’s production cost is roughly half the average price of the next competitor, at about $10 million per satellite, and that the company accounts for approximately 35% of satellites awarded under the SDA’s Transport Layer - the constellation designed to connect space-based sensors with ground systems for missile defense.
On the demand side, JPMorgan expects incremental funding related to the Golden Dome missile defense effort, together with intelligence agency procurement, to underpin a projected 45% compound annual growth rate in revenue through 2028. The bank referenced a company estimate of a $140 billion total addressable market, allocated across Golden Dome, intelligence customers and SDA constellations.
Operationally, JPMorgan highlighted York’s manufacturing footprint: two production facilities containing 85 build cells, with potential capacity to scale to about 1,000 satellites per year. The bank also sees scope for higher-margin recurring revenue from software and ground station services, which JPMorgan reports are generating around $30,000 per satellite per month today and could expand as the installed base grows. JPMorgan’s $39 price target is derived from a multiple of 5 times its 2027 sales estimate of $863 million.
Goldman Sachs viewpoint
Goldman Sachs acknowledged York’s vertically integrated model, which the firm said enables production that is about 50% cheaper and 20% faster than traditional defense prime contractors. That cost and speed advantage is a core part of Goldman’s view that York is positioned to benefit as the Defense Department adopts more commercial-style procurement approaches.
However, Goldman listed a set of cautionary factors including customer concentration, exposure to fixed-price contracts and limited visibility into future awards. The firm also emphasized that York is not yet profitable nor cash generative, a condition that tempers enthusiasm despite the company’s long-term growth potential.
Takeaway
Both analysts recognize York’s manufacturing advantages and its foothold in SDA programs, but they diverge on how those strengths balance against execution risks, contract structure and current financial performance. JPMorgan’s valuation reflects an optimistic revenue trajectory and recurring service monetization, while Goldman’s Neutral stance reflects near-term caution around profitability and award visibility.
Key figures and metrics cited
- JPMorgan price target: $39, based on 5 times 2027 sales estimate of $863 million.
- Goldman Sachs price target: $29, Neutral rating.
- Reported per-satellite price for York: about $10 million, roughly half the next competitor on average.
- York’s share of SDA Transport Layer awards: about 35%.
- Production footprint: two facilities with 85 build cells; potential capacity roughly 1,000 satellites per year.
- Recurring services revenue cited: approximately $30,000 per satellite per month.