Tokyo - A Reuters poll of equity strategists conducted between February 13 and February 24 indicates the Nikkei share average is likely to register only modest gains through the end of June, then continue on a path that takes it past the psychological 60,000 level by mid-2027. The survey captured the views of 15 analysts and reflects a market that has already advanced sharply this year.
The benchmark index has climbed more than 13% year-to-date and reached an intraday record of 58,015.08 on February 12, days after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a decisive win in a snap lower house election. The poll's median projection places the Nikkei at 57,500 at the end of June - roughly 0.3% above the close of 57,321.09 on Tuesday. That near-term estimate is notably higher than the 52,000 forecast returned by the poll in November.
Drivers cited by strategists
Respondents pointed to a combination of solid corporate earnings and strengthening foreign investor participation as the principal forces underpinning the market outlook. Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities, said foreign inflows are likely to gain further momentum in the context of a healthy domestic profit outlook.
Government data included in the poll showed foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese equities to the tune of 1.42 trillion yen in the week through February 14 - equivalent to about $9.16 billion using the exchange rate noted in the poll of $1 = 155.0800 yen. That weekly net purchase was the largest since last October and helped push the market toward record highs.
Shorter-term consolidation expected
Even as strategists remain constructive beyond the middle of next year, some expect a period of time-based consolidation to temper concerns about overvaluation after the recent rapid rise. As Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management, put it: "Given the rapid run-up so far, we expect a period of time-based consolidation to continue for a while to dispel the sense of overvaluation. However, we’re not expecting a price pullback."
On median forecasts across the panel, the Nikkei is projected to reach 58,500 by the end of 2026 and advance to 60,750 by mid-2027.
Artificial intelligence and sectoral effects
Strategists were also asked how recent developments around artificial intelligence have altered their equity views and whether AI heightens the risk of a market correction. All 10 respondents to that question said their assessment of AI's role as an equity driver had changed little over the prior three months.
Kiyohide Nagata, chief strategist at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory, noted continued strong demand across data centre supply chains - including semiconductors, chipmaking equipment and optical fibre - so long as U.S. hyperscalers keep investing in AI. At the same time, Nagata observed that selling pressure has increased in areas such as software over the past three months, since companies in that space could face disruption from AI.
Correction risk seen as low near term
Nine of the 10 respondents on the correction question judged a decline of 10% from recent highs to be unlikely over the coming three months. Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One, described U.S. equity moves as showing some wobble - "such as the AI rally pausing" - but said a sharp correction appears unlikely and any spillover to Japan should be mild.
The poll captured a range of strategist perspectives but converged on a view of limited probability for a near-term sharp decline, combined with a medium- to longer-term trajectory that moves the Nikkei above the 60,000 milestone amid supportive earnings and renewed foreign demand.
Poll methodology and context
The Reuters poll compiled median estimates from 15 equity strategists between February 13 and February 24. The results highlight both the near-term tendency toward consolidation following a rapid market ascent and the continued optimism for further gains by the end of 2026 and into 2027, conditioned on earnings and external investor flows.