Stock Markets February 15, 2026

Analysts See Buying Windows as Software Selloff Reprices AI Winners and Losers

Banks and brokers highlight selective opportunities in software, chips and industrials as AI-driven market narratives spark dislocations

By Ajmal Hussain DT MSFT NET RBRK
Analysts See Buying Windows as Software Selloff Reprices AI Winners and Losers
DT MSFT NET RBRK

Major brokerages this week highlighted a mix of upgrades and reiterated buys across software, semiconductor and industrial suppliers as AI-related sentiment pressures have driven selective selloffs. Citi screened for software names whose terminal multiples have compressed despite positive earnings revisions, flagging a set of firms it says are well-positioned for multiple AI outcomes. Barclays upgraded Analog Devices on improving industrial demand dynamics, Jefferies maintained a bullish stance on AppLovin after a steep pullback, and Deutsche Bank raised BorgWarner to Buy following its push into AI data center infrastructure. Strategists cautioned that narrative-driven selling tied to perceived AI vulnerability could persist and spill into credit markets.

Key Points

  • Citi screened roughly 90 software names and identified 22 stocks that fell at least 10% in the past month while 2025-2027 EPS estimates were revised higher over the last six months, arguing these represent buying opportunities as terminal multiples have compressed.
  • Barclays upgraded Analog Devices (ADI) to Overweight, citing a PMI-driven industrial inflection, normalized distributor inventories but still elevated company inventories, and ADI's leverage to industrial exposure.
  • Jefferies reiterated a Buy on AppLovin (APP) with an $860 target after a ~37% YTD decline, arguing short-term fears around CloudX, Meta Audience Network and Google Genie are overblown and that valuation at 15x FY27 EBITDA plus high growth warrants ownership; Deutsche Bank upgraded BorgWarner (BWA) to Buy after its move into AI data-center infrastructure and a TurboCell agreement expected to generate >$300M in 2027 in the initial phase.

Investment banks and research teams this week moved to re-evaluate companies they view as either beneficiaries or victims of the market's shifting interpretation of artificial intelligence (AI) risk. Across a range of notes, analysts argued that recent price moves have more to do with changes in sentiment and terminal-multiple expectations than with deterioration in near-term fundamentals, and they identified specific names where they see buying opportunities or improving fundamentals.


Citi sees buying opportunities after software pullback

Citi analysts, led by Drew Pettit, said the recent correction in software equities has opened a more constructive entry point for investors. The bank's note framed the selloff as one that has compressed terminal multiples in response to worries about AI-related disruption, even as consensus earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates for 2025 through 2027 have moved higher over the past six months.

To identify attractive candidates, Citi screened an eligible universe of roughly 90 software names for companies whose shares had fallen at least 10% over the last month but where 2025-2027 EPS estimates had been revised upward in the previous six months. The screen also emphasized stocks where implied terminal multiples have declined and currently sit below forward price-to-earnings ratios, a sign that some long-term valuation risk has been priced in.

Out of that universe, the screening process flagged 22 names. The list is tilted toward Buy-rated stocks, the bank said, and includes firms its analysts believe are "well-positioning for any AI scenario." Specific examples named by Citi include Dynatrace (NYSE:DT), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) and Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK). The analysts also noted Palantir Technologies among buy-rated companies they view as relative winners in a bear case centered on AI disruption.

Citi argued that the market reaction has centered on "punishing terminal multiples" due to uncertainty around AI-related business model risks, rather than a worsening of short-term fundamentals. The bank estimated that roughly a 10% reduction in terminal multiples for the S&P 500 Software & Services group is already reflected in current prices, while only a portion of a deeper 20% cut is factored in. Even under scenarios in which terminal multiples decline 10% to 20%, the analysts said implied growth expectations are not demanding, implying that positive earnings revisions should be meaningful to relative stock performance.

In Citi's view, a more volatile, fully valued bull market will make earnings momentum particularly important. Positive revisions for software names could act as a key fundamental catalyst to attract investors back to stocks that have been sold down with the broader sector.


Barclays upgrades Analog Devices on industrial inflection

Barclays upgraded Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) to Overweight, arguing the chipmaker is well positioned to benefit from a gradual recovery in industrial demand and that it offers "the cleanest operating model and balance sheet" among its peers. Analyst Tom O'Malley said purchasing-manager indexes have finally delivered the PMI inflection required for a broader industrial recovery, though he cautioned that the prior downturn left lingering effects.

O'Malley highlighted that distributor inventories have largely normalized, but company-level inventories remain historically high, which has weighed on loadings, utilization and margins across the group. Within that backdrop, Barclays sees early growth potential tied to data-center trends but remains selective across analog semiconductor names. The bank believes ADI has the most leverage to industrial exposure and therefore represents a preferable way to gain exposure to any improvement in the industrial cycle.


Barclays strategists warn of indiscriminate selling tied to AI narratives

Separately, Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau warned clients that the rapid, sentiment-driven selloff targeting companies perceived as exposed to AI could persist. The strategists said broader equity markets have so far shown relative resilience, but anxiety over AI disruption is producing "choppiness and more dispersion across sectors."

They argued that conventional investment labels like cyclicals and defensives are becoming less relevant as investors increasingly sort equities by perceived AI immunity or vulnerability. Hard-asset and old-economy groups - including commodities, industrials, materials, healthcare and consumer goods - are being treated as AI-immune. By contrast, parts of consumer and commercial services and technology-linked industries are viewed as vulnerable.

Barclays noted the roster of perceived AI losers has broadened quickly: the theme began with media and business services, extended into software and is now touching financial services, logistics and commercial real estate (CRE). Within these categories, selling has often been indiscriminate and narrative-driven, despite resilient EPS momentum. The strategists said investors are increasingly focused on "who is next," showing "no mercy for anything remotely seen as an AI loser." Fears of potential business failures are beginning to spill into credit markets and are pressuring banks that had been considered AI winners. In the near term, the strategists allowed that momentum may be unstoppable with no clear catalyst to halt the rout, while suggesting the dislocation could create longer-term opportunities.


Jefferies flags AppLovin as a contrarian buy after sharp pullback

Jefferies described marketing-platform operator AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP) as presenting "a great buying opportunity" after a steep decline in its shares. The broker reiterated a Buy rating and maintained an $860 price target, noting the stock was down roughly 37% year to date despite what Jefferies characterized as a strong growth profile.

Analysts led by James Heaney argue that short-term concerns have created a significant gap between fundamentals and valuation. Jefferies expects more than 50% top-line growth, projects AppLovin trading at 15 times its FY27 EBITDA and models an approximate 40% five-year compound annual growth rate, metrics the bank said more than adequately price in the risks the market is fretting over.

The team singled out three market worries that they believe have weighed disproportionately on the shares: CloudX, Meta Audience Network and Google Genie. On CloudX, Jefferies expects "near zero impact," noting that no standalone mediation platform has proven successful. Regarding Meta's Audience Network, analysts concede potential pressure from increased bidding on iOS traffic but see limited evidence that it is materially affecting AppLovin. On Google Genie and the broader question of generative AI in gaming, Jefferies expects new tools to be integrated into existing engines, which could enhance AppLovin's distribution advantages.

At 15 times FY27 EBITDA on Jefferies' model, and given the high projected top-line CAGR, the broker contends the current valuation adequately compensates for risks. With underlying fundamentals largely unchanged since the start of the year, Jefferies said the recent pullback offers an opportunity to own a distinctive growth asset at a compelling entry point.


Deutsche Bank upgrades BorgWarner after pivot into AI data-center infrastructure

Deutsche Bank moved BorgWarner from Hold to Buy, arguing the auto-parts supplier's strategic move into AI data-center infrastructure could materially alter its medium- to long-term growth trajectory. Central to the bank's view is BorgWarner's agreement with TurboCell to develop a modular turbine-generator system.

Deutsche Bank estimated the initial phase of that program could generate more than $300 million of revenue in 2027 and portrayed it as the opening step in a broader ramp. At a full 2-gigawatt buildout, the analysts said revenue potential "clearly can be substantially larger," framing the opportunity as a multi-year secular growth driver. The bank also pointed to the profitability profile of the new business, saying the revenue should begin at mid-teens margins, implying that the business could be profitable without enormous scale.

The combination of the TurboCell announcement and stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results pushed BorgWarner's shares up more than 22% on Wednesday. Following these developments, Deutsche raised its rating to Buy and lifted its price target to $82.


What this means for investors

Across the notes, the recurring theme is that investors should distinguish between changes in narrative and changes in fundamentals. Citi's screen attempts to isolate names where terminal multiple compression has already occurred and where positive earnings revisions create a clearer path for price recovery that is not purely reliant on sentiment-driven re-rating. Barclays' actions reflect a view that improving PMI data and normalized distributor inventories are beginning to create selective opportunities in industrial-facing semiconductors. Jefferies and Deutsche, meanwhile, focused on company-specific catalysts: AppLovin's growth profile and BorgWarner's pivot into AI data-center infrastructure.

At the same time, strategists cautioned that narrative-driven selling tied to perceived AI vulnerability can broaden quickly, affecting not just media and software but also financials, logistics and real estate, and could have spillover effects into credit markets. That dynamic suggests the market environment may remain choppy until investors regain clarity on how AI will reshape business models and margins across sectors.


Stocks mentioned in this report include Dynatrace (NYSE:DT), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Cloudflare (NYSE:NET), Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK), Palantir Technologies, Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP) and BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA).

Risks

  • Narrative-driven selling tied to perceived AI vulnerability could continue, producing volatility and indiscriminate pressure across sectors including software, financial services, logistics and commercial real estate.
  • Company inventories remaining historically high could impair loadings, utilization and margins in the industrial semiconductor group, slowing margin recovery even as distributor inventories normalize.
  • AI-related business model uncertainty has led markets to punish terminal multiples; deeper-than-anticipated multiple contraction (beyond the partially priced-in 20% scenario) would weigh on valuations across the S&P 500 Software & Services group.

More from Stock Markets

Indigenous Occupation Halts Operations at Cargill’s Santarem Terminal Feb 21, 2026 Market Turbulence Reinforces Case for Broader Diversification Feb 21, 2026 NYSE Holdings UK Ltd launches unified trading platform to streamline market access Feb 21, 2026 Earnings Drive Weekly Winners and Losers as Buyout Headlines Lift Masimo Feb 21, 2026 Barclays Sees 'Physical AI' Scaling to Hundreds of Billions by 2035 Feb 21, 2026