Investment analysts at Wolfe Research and JPMorgan have lowered their ratings on Crown Holdings, pointing to a substantial share-price rally and projections for slower earnings growth that leave limited upside in the near term.
Wolfe Research moved the stock to Peer Perform, saying that the core elements of the company’s long-standing bullish case have already materialized after more than two years of operational improvements and efforts to repair the balance sheet. The firm highlighted several drivers behind the stock’s advance, including steady fundamental gains, reduced leverage, a leaner asset base and a stronger emphasis on share repurchases.
Those developments are now largely reflected in the share price, Wolfe added, leaving a more balanced risk-reward profile. While the firm does not characterize valuation as stretched, it says the gap versus peers has narrowed and that reduces the scope for further near-term upside. Wolfe also flagged the need to revisit its view in the first half of 2026, noting that the company’s earnings guidance could turn out to be conservative.
JPMorgan similarly cut its recommendation to Neutral. The bank observed that Crown shares have outpaced the broader market, rising 34% over the past year, and expects earnings growth to decelerate in 2026 after a period of recovery. JPMorgan expects costs associated with capacity expansion and elevated overhead to pressure profitability, particularly in the Americas.
Specifically, JPMorgan now projects earnings per share of about $8 in 2026, a modest increase from roughly $7.80 in 2025. The firm cited new can capacity in Brazil and rising U.S. labor costs as margin headwinds for the Americas. By contrast, Europe was described as a relative bright spot, where can volumes could grow as much as 5%. The Asia Pacific region may face weaker profit performance because of regional disruptions, and the company’s Transit packaging unit might show some recovery even though demand remains soft.
Despite these concerns, JPMorgan raised its price target to $115 from $112, reflecting a higher valuation multiple across the materials sector. The bank nonetheless emphasized that the current share price already embodies fair value given the modest growth and free cash flow it anticipates.
This pair of downgrades reflects a shift in analyst expectations from upside driven by operational fixes and balance-sheet improvement to a period in which such gains are largely priced into the stock and future profit expansion is likely to be more gradual.