Fiverr's recent results and forward guidance prompted a wave of analyst downgrades as Wall Street wrestles with the marketplace's plan to pivot toward higher-value work. Firms including JPMorgan, Needham & Company and Roth lowered ratings and warned that the company's strategy - while purposeful - carries notable execution risk and could take time to yield material improvements.
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth moved his rating to Neutral, describing the strategic move upmarket as "strategically sound, but carries elevated execution risk and will take time." Anmuth pointed to guidance for first-quarter and full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA that came in "significantly below consensus," noting that management issued a wider guidance range that reflects uncertainty tied both to macroeconomic conditions and to the company's transformation program.
Despite those concerns, Anmuth acknowledged traction on higher-priced work: spend per buyer was up 13% and gross merchandise value (GMV) from projects above $1,000 increased by about 23%. He cautioned, however, that active buyer growth is expected to slow as Fiverr intentionally de-emphasizes lower-value transactions.
Needham's Bernie McTernan downgraded the stock to Hold, citing "too much uncertainty" as Fiverr's new strategic direction is projected to drive "significant GMV declines in '26E." McTernan labeled the shares as "the cheapest stock in our coverage universe," but said AI-driven disruption at the low end is weighing on demand. Needham's view anticipates GMV for projects under $1,000 will drop 22% this year and considers the declines in 2026 to be too steep for the business to return to growth in 2027.
Roth analyst Rohit Kulkarni also lowered his rating to Neutral, describing the company's move to an AI-native, upmarket marketplace as "more painful than imagined." Kulkarni said the upmarket pivot is still early, that core marketplace trends are subdued, and that AI tools could compress near-term demand. Consistent with that outlook, he reduced his 2026 revenue estimate by 12% and his 2026 EBITDA estimate by 42%.
Collectively, the analyst feedback highlights a tension in Fiverr's current operating picture: higher-ticket transactions are strengthening, producing better spend per buyer and higher GMV on larger projects, but management's deliberate shift away from lower-value work - compounded by AI-driven substitution at the low end - has generated guidance and estimates that fall short of consensus and raised questions about timing and execution.
Key points
- Multiple brokerages downgraded Fiverr after earnings and guidance signaled a tougher transition to higher-value clients.
- Higher-ticket metrics are improving - spend per buyer +13% and GMV for projects over $1,000 +23% - while lower-ticket GMV is expected to decline.
- Analysts flagged elevated execution risk, a wider guidance range, and reductions to 2026 revenue and EBITDA estimates.
Risks and uncertainties
- Execution risk tied to the upmarket transformation - the shift could take longer and be more difficult than anticipated.
- Demand compression at the low end due to AI-driven disruption, which may reduce GMV for sub-$1,000 projects.
- Macroeconomic uncertainty reflected in a wider guidance range, affecting projected revenue and EBITDA for 2026.