Evercore ISI analysts expect Walmart to report a "solid" performance for the fourth quarter later this week, but they say the big-box retailer will likely accompany its results with a cautious plan for the year ahead.
In a research note, the analysts said Walmart - which is scheduled to release quarterly results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Thursday - is likely to outline full-year earnings guidance in a band around $2.80 to $2.90 per share. Evercore observed that guidance at that level would run approximately 3% to 5% below the midpoint of analysts' current projections.
The Evercore team pointed to a mixed signal: operational momentum in the form of profitable market-share gains and rising store traffic, balanced against managements known propensity to provide conservative initial guidance for the coming fiscal period. With Walmart trading close to record highs, Evercore said investor sentiment is largely favorable, which raises the bar for the retailer when it issues its forward-looking numbers.
Evercore noted that Walmart is winning profitable market share and driving positive traffic, but historically management tends to be conservative when providing its initial guide for the year ahead.
Ahead of the print, Evercore added Walmart to its "tactical, action and positioning" underperform list. The firm drew a parallel to recent moves in other long-running winners: shares of Sherwin-Williams and O'Reilly Automotive, which had shown strong underlying results, trimmed back after releasing relatively tepid full-year outlooks.
Walmart's share price has climbed more than 18% so far in 2026, pushing the company's market capitalization above $1 trillion and positioning it as the largest constituent in the consumer staples sector by a wide margin.
Given the centrality of consumer spending to U.S. economic momentum, Evercore said investors will watch Walmart's results for further color on household demand. The retailer's lower pricing on staple items has supported sales among customers affected by inflation, and its holiday-season performance could offer additional insight into the health of American consumer activity during a pivotal period.
Separately, promotional commentary tied to investing tools was included in the original release suggesting that algorithmic strategies review names such as Walmart against broad financial metrics. That commentary described an AI-driven selection process and cited historical winners in other contexts; those observations remain separate from the analyst forecast and the company's reported performance.
Summary
Evercore ISI expects Walmart to post solid fourth-quarter results but to provide modest full-year earnings guidance near $2.80-$2.90 per share, which would be roughly 3%-5% below analysts' midpoint forecasts. The firm placed Walmart on its tactical underperform list, citing management's conservative guide-setting and elevated market expectations with the stock near all-time highs.