Investors are bracing for a strong earnings update from Nvidia this week, with sell-side analysts pointing to accelerating demand for AI infrastructure and rising deliveries of next-generation chips as the main revenue drivers. Expectations center on robust data-centre spending, an uptick in higher-priced Blackwell-series shipments, and material contributions from China-bound H200 units.
Analyst outlooks
Stifel analyst Ruben Roy said his fiscal fourth-quarter outlook has not meaningfully changed since three months ago, while reiterating that Nvidia remains part of a clearly accelerating demand story for AI infrastructure that coexists with longer-term questions about the sustainability of that spend. Roy described Stifel's stance as bullish, noting his view that Nvidia is "still in the early innings of what we expect to be a long-tailed investment cycle for AI infrastructure." He also highlighted conversations with Nvidia management at CES and stronger hyperscaler capital-expenditure outlooks for 2026 as signals that consensus estimates are "likely moving higher post the 4Q report."
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh offered specific numerical forecasts, calling for fourth-quarter revenue of $69 billion and first-quarter guidance in the range of $74 billion to $75 billion. Vinh attributes part of the near-term upside to the ramp-up of Blackwell B300 and GB300 shipments, which he notes carry higher average selling prices.
Vinh further estimates that shipments of H200 units destined for China will add roughly $3 billion to $3.5 billion of revenue in the quarter under review, with an additional $2 billion to $3 billion contribution expected in the April quarter. He projects a 24% sequential rise in data-centre revenue and a 27% sequential climb in compute revenue, while warning that GDDR memory shortages could exert pressure on the gaming segment.
Market reaction and stock implications
Trading analysts have pointed to the upcoming update as a potential catalyst for the stock after several months of consolidation. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, observed that Nvidia shares have been confined to a trading range between $170 and $195 as investors weigh returns on AI investments and competitive risks. Morrison said the company’s quarterly update could prompt a breakout if it delivers stronger-than-expected results or bullish forward guidance.
Morrison noted the market will focus first on headline revenue and earnings-per-share outcomes and how they compare to expectations. He added that Nvidia has frequently surprised investors with optimistic guidance, and reiterated that if the company issues encouraging forward guidance, it would underpin the share price. Key metrics named by Morrison include data-centre revenue, overall chip demand, and hyperscale cloud spending, with competition and margin trends also receiving attention.
Concluding his remarks, Morrison emphasized the broader market implications of Nvidia’s report, saying there is a lot at stake for the world’s largest company by market capitalisation. He observed that the company’s stock no longer has the same unidirectional certainty it once seemed to enjoy, and that the coming results will carry meaningful implications for wider markets.
What to watch on the report:
- Data-centre revenue and compute revenue versus the sequential growth rates cited by analysts.
- Management commentary on hyperscaler capital spending and any signals on 2026 outlooks.
- Guidance for the April quarter and any updates on shipment cadence for Blackwell and H200 products.