Summary
Piper Sandler projects the multi-year supply agreement between Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Meta could position AMD for approximately another $100 billion in revenues across the next five years. The brokerage noted the structure echoes AMD’s prior arrangement with OpenAI and reflects growing traction for AMD’s AI infrastructure products.
Deal mechanics and product details
Under the terms described by Piper Sandler, AMD will deliver a tailored version of its MI450 GPU integrated with the Helios rack to support Meta’s AI infrastructure needs. The analyst Harsh Kumar emphasized the GPU variant is a modification of the standard MI450 that does not require a major redesign or a new tape-out.
The agreement also includes a contingent financing element for Meta - up to 160 million warrants with a final strike price set at $600. Those warrants are linked to a deployment target of 6 gigawatts, with the deployment window beginning in the second half of 2026.
Deployment timing and revenue cadence
Piper Sandler reported that the first gigawatt of the committed capacity is already spoken for. AMD is anticipating a significant ramp in deployments in the fourth quarter of 2026 and expects revenue on a per-gigawatt basis to be in the double-digit bill-of-goods range. The analyst quantified the dollars per gigawatt metric likely to be in the $17-$18 per GW range, comparable to the terms the firm said AMD negotiated in the OpenAI engagement.
Demand and product mix
The brokerage indicated AMD management is seeing particularly strong demand for the MI450 GPU and the Helios rack. Piper Sandler also noted Meta’s deployment is expected to use Venice and Verona CPUs alongside the MI450. The firm stated there should be no revenue overlap with AMD’s OpenAI arrangement, citing differences in workloads and the chip variants being supplied.
Financial implications
Kumar estimated the Meta agreement could lift AMD’s earnings per share by roughly $5 in peak years and described the arrangement as additive to AMD’s longer-term objective of reaching $20 in earnings per share.
Context limitations
The assessment and financial projections cited here are drawn from Piper Sandler’s analysis as described above. The timeline, per-gigawatt revenue expectations, warrant terms, and EPS impact are those reported by the brokerage.
Key points
- AMD’s multi-year supply deal with Meta could add about $100 billion in revenues over five years, according to Piper Sandler.
- The agreement centers on a customized MI450 GPU paired with the Helios rack and includes up to 160 million warrants tied to a 6 GW deployment starting H2 2026.
- Sectors impacted include semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and data center hardware markets.
Risks and uncertainties
- Timing risk - revenue realization depends on a staged deployment beginning in H2 2026 and a significant ramp in 4Q26 as projected by the analyst.
- Execution and contingent terms - the economic benefit is linked to warrant terms and the 6 GW deployment target, introducing contingencies to the ultimate financial outcome.
- Per-gigawatt pricing assumptions - estimates of $17-$18 per GW are central to the revenue math and to the comparison with the OpenAI deal.